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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (58168)	4/29/2002 8:42:02 AM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Art Hogan is bearish on techs especially telecom. Said sector won't come back until late 2003 or 2004...

To: LTK007 who wrote (58168)	4/30/2002 5:13:43 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

Smart Money & Dumb Money: That may be true, but rather than stereotype certain classes of traders or investors as smart or dumb, it's important to study the data for as much as a year, to see how it compares to Market performance. Of crucial importance, was there any extreme in the data concurrrent with a major Market high, or just before? Was there any extreme concurrent with/ just before a major low? It's been my experience that indicators don't always work the way you'd think they would or the way some supposed expert says they work. For example, you'd think Merrill Lynch's asset allocation recommendations over the years would be part of "smart money", but I found that, if anything, their asset allocation recommendations tended to be lower in the early stages of major advances, and higher in the early stages of major declines. From May of '96 thru the summer of 2000, they had an extremely low 28% U.S. equity exposure recommended. Then they kicked out Chuck Clough, and hired Christine Callies, who raised their equity exposure just in time for the post-Labor Day 2000 sell-off.