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To: sun-tzu who wrote (1813)	4/29/2002 6:16:32 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2505

Astro update: partial reprint fwiw Weekly Astro Opinion Update for 4/28/2002 By Robert Hitt General Comments I have to talk about the unpleasant subject again. As long time readers know the first controlled nuclear reaction occurred with Saturn located in Gemini at 9 degrees. This natal Saturn location for the "birth" of the nuclear age makes any hard angle transit to the 9th degree of Gemini (or near that degree) very dangerous. Hard angles aspects are dividing the circle by 4 ( 0, 90, 180, and 270, degrees to be specific). One of the more problematic hard angle transits to have is a Saturn transit. Both Three mile island and Chernobyl occurred with Saturn at a hard angle transit to the natal position of Saturn on the birth of the nuclear age. This is why I have maintained focus on the issue. Saturn has now moved just past the nuke hot zone and is now at 13 Gemini and will not return for 7 years. If all we get from the effect of this transit this time around are the changes in strategic policy implemented over the last several months we will be lucky. We are not quite out of danger from a terrorist event of a nuclear nature because unfortunately something may have been set into motion a few weeks ago that has yet to come to a conclusion. The previous Moon Saturn conjunction at 11 degrees of Gemini on 4/16 was specifically a nasty looking alignment. The next Moon Saturn conjunction on May 14th will be well out of the zone however. I think the danger level is starting to wane now but we have to consider some faster transits through the nuke zone coming up also. The next 10 or so days we will deal with. Mars transits the nuke hot zone from now until 4/29 Venus will be in the hot zone from May 2nd until May 5th. I consider these two transits reason to remain vigilant. In particular the Mars location is a concern for the coming week. Mercury enters the nuke zone on May 9th then makes a retrograde station at 9 degrees of Gemini on May 16th. Unfortunately I conclude this could be an indication of a terrorist plan gone awry or produce a delay in execution. Mercury retrogrades back out of the hot zone on May 23rd but returns again on June 22nd for the last pass through which ends on June 24th. Combine the Mercury retro in a high risk location with the very tight solar eclipse conjunction to Saturn on June 10th and it will be still important to remain defensive about positioning to the long side. This potential wild card element in the event structure is a MAJOR RISK FACTOR. If you plan on being aggressive taking a bullish position in stocks on a good looking dip before the end of June you MUST take out some protective insurance due to this. One reason the bulls were on their heels last week are some of the still widely held large caps began to feel the effect of the New Paradigm in accounting. AOL posted a loss bigger than many counties GDP in order to set straight the decreased value of it's merger with Time Warner. Yes this write down was a known but it was still sobering. We also had some press about AOL last week that sounds like management is in disarray. AOL was supposed to become the ideal blend of new and old and now looks like a combination of long term decay. People are bored with the internet, fed up with spam, don't seem all that entertained by old movies, and those Time- Life books don't seem all that interesting either. Hey at least AOL can sell ads back to itself but how long are investors going to go for moving a dollar from the right pocket to the left pocket? ~~~~ OK so how about Bonds? With fear levels running high it is understandable that bonds should do rather well. Yields on the long bond dropped to below 5.6% last week. I think the popularity of bonds among the masses is getting a bit frothy. Fundamentally we know the guns and butter type of management of the economy from Bush will eventually play out just like any other time in history. We should start hearing the THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT soon. The talking heads on CNBC will crow about bonds desirability and discount the issue of printing money to pay for wars as a non problem. One reason history repeats itself so often is because people forget history. It does take time for the memory lapse to occur however. The generation of bond investors who eventually were roasted on a stick by the Lyndon Johnson attempt at defying the laws of economics are now too old to remember what it is like to take a 90% capital loss in a supposedly safe investment like bonds. And yes it was 90%. Those huge losses brought on the era of the bond vigilante but it is about over. The youngsters will have to learn all over again. This kind of sea change in sentiment in fixed income securities will be hard for most people to detect until it is too late. Just like bears in a long bull market in stocks they will succumb to temptation and try to take advantage of every spike in the stair stepping rise in yields to lock in a "great" rate. Hey 5% looks great now but then 6% will look great, and then 7%. Unfortunately the investors who start to buy bonds too early in the process may run out of money to throw at them well in advance of the actual peak in long term rates which is probably many years down the road. At best current buy and hold bond investors might be able to offset a nasty capital loss over time with better yields on future purchases but the sad fact is inflation will probably rob them of any REAL return eventually. Don't be tempted. Fundamentals are now a VERY big problems for bonds and will continue to be. If things play out as I hope over the next few years we can take our profits in stocks from the mid 2002 dip to the conclusion of the 2003 speculative highs and THEN lock in some good yields in maybe 2004. LOLOL maybe we can all retire after 2004 and live in style on the 10% interest coupons. ~~~~