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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (11378)	4/29/2002 11:14:16 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

wave, it hasn't been easy has it. In a bear market most of the bears get shaken out, before they reap the rewards. So I'm told. Some of my conclusions re shorting power reached 5 mos ago: - foreign money started flowing out of the US. I posted a few links back then. - going forward the lack of company earnings, and unemployment were going to be prime factors. I posted a few links here as well. Unemployment will be interesting to watch going forward. Still a lot of layoffs being announced. - going forward there are going to be too many equities on the market, given the eventual demand. Not only have we a bubble, call it what you will, but I believe we also likely have an equity supply bubble. Hence the ewavers may be on to something re a grand super cycle down event, or whatever they call it. - LT charts for most all sectors excluding PM's were negative. Very much so in most cases. - Seen nothing since to change my mind. But the market goes up and down along the way. More than I predicted for sure. My decision was to remain patient and focused, in two areas, shorts and PM's. Only a few other things have I played long. I didn't want to go 100% PM's. I wanted to stay on the right side of the major trends, for as long as they last. There are lots of different types of players, but I think the market is now segmented to favor a more patient approach, if you do it correctly. So I stuck with all my shorts, traded a few, and overweighted tech. Recently closed out two tech types for 30% gains. Puny by PM standards, but I'll take it. Don't think I will have any losers by the time this is over. Still behind in one short. Shorted a home builder today. Rotating from tech short covers. Don't know if it is quite time, but it is close enough to toe in I think. My current view is the general market has more downside. A bottom in another few weeks or so would be my present guess.