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To: Les H who wrote (1849)	4/29/2002 11:28:30 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29607

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To: Les H who wrote (1849)	4/29/2002 12:10:31 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29607

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To: Les H who wrote (1849)	4/29/2002 6:40:16 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29607

What to expect now. April 29, 2001. Ord. The S&P appear to have had a breakout to the downside on Friday. Friday the S&P closed below the previous lows of February 22 and February 7. The S&P closed below the last previous low of February 22 on increased volume and imply a valid break did occur. This potential downside breakout gives a downside target near 970 level on the S&P for intermediate term and 1060 for the short term. Today's low was 1064. After a breakout occurs, the markets will a lot of the time, attempt to rally back into the trading range it broke out off. On the current situation, this would be a rally back above 1075. If this rally does materialize near term and the volume is light, we may add to our short position. The markets are in a "Window Dressing" period now (this period has a bullish bias) that will last into the first part of May. The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 7.64 and the "Percent Volume" indicator closed at .37, which both readings are in bullish territory for the short-term. Therefore, there is a possibility of a bounce near term. However, the bigger trends are down as the "Summation Index" on the S&P and NYSE area pointing down and we like to trade in the direction of this index. Therefore, if a bounce does appear, we ill attempt to add to shorts. We are staying short the SPX. The NDX made a valid break below a triple low. These lows came on April 4, 2001, February 22 and April 11. A lot of the time after a valid break, the market will attempt to trade back into the trading range. This attempt can come at any time but usually shows up two to four days after the break out. We are in that time zone now. This potential attempt could rally the NDX back up near the 1315 level (the breakout area). If this rally attempt does materialize and does so on lighter volume, then a shorting opportunity will be created. We are starting to get some downside targets for the next intermediate term low and they are 1150, 1085 and 960 on the NDX. No new trades for the moment. The Weekly and months charts on the XAU remain bullish. The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms. We are seeing signs the XAU may be ready to start taking a rest for short term. The "Rydex Precious metal Fund" assets have reached in an area where previous short-term tops have occurred is the past. Therefore, it is probably not a good time to add to gold stocks holdings here. We are staying long the XAU. marketweb.com