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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: backman who wrote (16681)	4/29/2002 9:59:46 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 26752

SEMIS BRIGHT SIDE OF CONTINUED SELL-OFF By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader The market once again continued the downtrend in a steep descent on Monday. It’s now dramatically below its moving averages, below support and at or below the bottoms of the declining channels. Right now the indices are near such oversold levels that they would almost have to snap back. Although I’m not saying we’re going to necessarily see a significant low here, I would say that tomorrow almost invariably has got to see some kind of snapback rally, just to alleviate the oversold conditions. The Nasdaq 100, in particular, is at an oversold range that has each time in the past resulted in a snapback. My personal board, laden with tech stocks, showed quite a few gainers today, a lot of which had to do with the fact that the SOX was up a couple of points and resisted the decline for the most part. This indicates to me that tech stocks are fairly washed and look like they may be bottoming ahead of the market, while the rest of the market plays catch-up. This should invariably result in a turnaround and perhaps a significant one. It has now gotten to the point where we’ve dropped 200 Nasdaq 100 points in nine sessions with very little significant intraday rallies. It’s an extreme I haven’t seen in years, and the angle of descent is very steep, so at the very least, we could have a sharp snapback rally and possibly very soon. Whether that’s going to be very significant, as I’ve said, remains to be seen. A review of the technicals today showed that things were not that bad, especially on New York, with 1400 up and only 1748 down. Nasdaq was only 3-2 negative, with 1432 stocks up on Nasdaq today. Even though there were 2100 down, it’s an indication that there are plenty of stocks that appear to be bottoming. Up/down volume was less than 2-1 negative on Nasdaq and about 3-1 negative on New York. A review of my board showed some very big gainers. Nvidia, on strong earnings and an upbeat conference call, was up 5 points today on very big volume. Among the other leaders, Veritas was up 2, Siebel up 1, Mercury Interactive up 1, and eBay up 1 at 14. On the downside, Verisign continued to get pounded today, down another 1.82 on heavy volume. Qualcomm broke 30, closing down 1.43, Genesis Microchip was down 1, with Checkpoint down nearly 1. There was about an even split between advances and declines on my personal board today, and this consists of all high-tech stocks. So this may auger well for the market in the next day or two. My projected support level of 1230 was severely tested today. The NDX got to 1229 and bounced about 17 points off of that to close at 1247. We’ll see if they can extend the late firming tomorrow, but so far each rally attempt on an intraday basis has failed at price resistance and/or at the declining moving averages, and until we break that pattern there’s still, of course, vulnerability to the downside. Although we’re so stretched to the downside at this point, that I’m looking for at least a pretty good attempt rally tomorrow. Good trading! Harry