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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (27757)	4/29/2002 6:44:04 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

If Iraq attacks another country (Israel, Kuwait or Iran, I suppose), then we can get attack them back. In the absence of that sort of aggression, we aren't going to get allies to help us here Why not? You really think we're going to lift a finger if Iraq attacks Iran, which is unlikely in any event? If Iraq attacks Israel, it will suffer a catastrophic conventional defeat unless it starts off with WMDs, in which case Iraq will be turned into a radioactive parking lot. This is a no-brainer. If it attacks Kuwait, it will again suffer the kind of defeat it suffered in '91 unless it uses WMDs, in which case it is likely that nukes will be used against Iraq. Iraq isn't attacking anyone in the near term unless it feels that it has a sufficiently strong WMD arsenal to have MAD (mutually assured destruction) in place to prevent nuclear attacks against it. Since MAD is mutual, it won't use WMDs, ergo, its only option is to go conventional, in which case it loses in a big way to either Israel or the US, or a combination of the two. Do not expect to see Iraq attack anyone in the near future.

To: Bilow who wrote (27757)	4/29/2002 7:04:23 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Iraq makes Vietnam look easy. That a big exageration. No jungle, better technology, no superpower help of Iraq, less political restrictions on our military once we do commit, and most of all nobody that will support Saddam as strongly as the Vietnamese communists pushed for a reunified communist Vietnam. BTW I'm not saying it would be simple, or even that we should do it, merely that it doesn't "make Vietnam look easy". Being a pariah nation is not an option for the US. It is not likely that an invasion of Iraq would cause the US to be a pariah nation. We might not be cheered loudly around the world but we would not be a pariah for it. Tim