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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (11404)	4/29/2002 10:19:57 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Peter -- "You are either with us or against us" the White House has polarised the ME and is now involved in a peace process it never intended to participate in. US Plots Possible 2003 Air/Land Iraq Attack -- a headline like this one and Slider's $350 gold at first bang has me ST bearish on ol' yeller... ST bearish on oil and gas too. I took some money off the table today and raised my cash position to 35% - the big headliners like Kinross and Bema finished off in the range of -3% ...... Newmont finished slightly in the red too, so I'm thinking smart money is pulling back a little. I've also noticed the stocks that are going up are going up on small 100 share trades despite the window dressing activity from the brokerage firms. ...now oil prices... shoulder season and the falling price of energy will give our next market rally - all led (unfortunately) by the techs - the bullishness in this sector just amazes me - "the bottom is in, really ... is true this time" Anyway... let's be careful out there! Regards Frank P.

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (11404)	4/30/2002 8:42:57 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 36161

Peter, it's not that everything is okay. It isn't. The question is whether policies that deal poorly with world unrest and promote huge budget deficits leave investors with no other alternatives than gold and silver. This is where I disagree with those who see only gold and silver as a good investment. For one thing, defense stocks have done very well since Sept. 11. Goodrich, for example, has gone from around 17 to 32, or almost double, and they even pay a good dividend. Some security stocks have done well. The obvious play was Invision Technologies, which makes bomb detectors for screening people and baggage at airports. The shares went from around 11 to 44 before dropping back to about 27. There are also some software companies that deal with privacy, hacking, etc. My point is that I'd rather invest in a company where demand for its products is on the rise than in a commodity where demand tends to remain constant except in periods of uncertainty. I also disagree with those who think telecom has had it for the near future. The fact is that efficient business communication requires more and more use for telecom, and the apparent overcapacity of service providers is, in my view, only temporary. Art