I posted this at Lee's thread - doesn't mean a damn thing -VBG
My thoughts-
I have the feeling that some funds are being liquidated. It is obvious that Janus is and has been selling for some time. Cramer has been talking about it forever.
If you take a look at one of their most popular and profitable funds in the bubble days, you'll see what I mean. The JAMRX became available to our 401k in Jan. 2000! (We didn't buy it
thanx to all of the great traders here and on SI). At the time, their largest holdings were AOL, ENE, NOK AMZN, etc.
quote.yahoo.com
Secondly, as I pointed out yesterday, the Merril Lynch Biotech fund, BBH, made lower lows than Sept 21, even though the BTK hasn't yet (almost, but not yet).
Don't forget, the NDX was changed at the first of the year, I think, with a lot of stuff removed and a lot of biotechs added.
Also, in 1999, there must have been a 100 different instruments formed to trade the same damn stocks. I-shares, holders, individual brokers formed their own funds - ie: the internet
funds, dots, I don't know what all is or was out there.
I would imagine that half of those trading vehicles have disappeared. And, if they haven't, they should have! -g-
On top of all that, I think foreign money is beginning to pull out.
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The BPCOMP reversed today.
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
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The nasd stopped at support of 1650.
I think we could go up to 1725 before turning back down.
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[db][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
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The VXN gave another sell signal today on the p&f chart. You can see that, at the moment, the BSL is at 53.
stockcharts.com
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The BPNDX is on a support level of 28. However, it did drop thru the BSL (bearish support line).
stockcharts.com
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The VIX stopped at support at 26, right at the BSL. If it prints 28, that is another sell signal.
stockcharts.com
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You can see where the DOW fell out of the triangle on this p&f chart, stopping at support of 9850 on the 50 box chart. The support on the 100 box chart is 9300.
stockcharts.com
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I don't have time to look at the SOX, S&P, etc.
I am sure we will have a rally, what with Donald's signals and all. It was pointed out today on SI, that with all of the calls purchased today on the QQQ, the max pain actually fell close to a
point.
That means the May max pain now at 33. Doesn't mean that it can't hit 34 first, though.
I didn't go long today. I wasn't even tempted.
Donald has class 2 weekly buy signals. I think that I will wait until all of his signals line up, daily and weekly, then go clown long.
(Well, I might try a scalp here and there along the way -g-)
I think the end of June looks good.
All IMVVVHO, of course. |
