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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (27805)	4/30/2002 5:57:54 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

These are not small cities filled with people who are chafing under the rule of a hated foreign elite like the Afghanistani cities were. No they're not. They're under the rule of a hated domestic dictator, his clan, and those of the area surrounding his native village. So, what has been the history of hated domestic dictators, lately? They have gone down due to external influences. The Romanian guy is a good example. Milosevich, another. Their body guards, presidential guards, etc. did them no good. You are assuming the Iraqis would be unhappy to see Americans and Kurds move in. You are assuming the army Hussein will not give amunition and fuel to will remain faithful to him. Even though, as we write, members of his army defect to the Kurds. These are people who must be very strong in their opposition given the pressure he can put on them through their families. You are assuming no part of his army would not turn their guns on him - he doesn't assume that. You are assuming Saddam and his military people have learned from the Gulf War in which they tried to re-fight the war with Iran. They were damn stupid the last two times. We can't assume they've learned, or not. Saddam is not conventionally intelligent - he acts out of whimsy sometimes and is grandiose in his self esteem. You are assuming the citizenry will support his stand in the cities. Hell, even the citizenry in Jenin were not all faithful to the terrorists in the resistance to the Israelis - some of them sabotaged the booby traps. This is a proud and (in their eyes) used to "freedom" and self rule. They are? This is a stalinist country. Saddam has thought police just as East Germany did. They are despised, feared and hated but if their power is in the least threatened the citizens will sack the police offices. Armies are poor at civil control - it's done through police organs. Smallish, elite military force such as his Republican and Presidential guards don't have the means both to extend civil control through a city and defend it. You are assuming Iraqis hate the US and Kurds, and that sunnis and shias hate each other more than they all hate the secret police and Saddam. You are assuming the ordinary police will stay at their posts and continue to support activities of secret police and Saddam. You are assuming Iraqis don't know their "freedom" under Saddam is not a sham. Equally their "self rule". They are not going to put up well with being under US occupation any better than the Palestinians have put up with Israeli occupation. Note that our troops in Afghanistan are there by invitation. In Afghanistan, not by everyone's invitation. The Kurds and their allies have been inviting the US in for a while.... You seem to be assuming Saddam can sell his people on a Great Patriotic War but his army suffers from the usual middle eastern defects and he has no strategic depth. Are you assuming that he can sell his people on a Great Patriotic Guerilla War against Kurds who envision a confederal democracy? In a previous post you dismissed the idea of Turkish support as a non starter. The Turkish govt has been saying publicly that Saddam is a great pain in the ass and has cost them a lot of money. The Iraqi Kurds have been entertaining the some parts of the Turkish government with the aim of reassuring them they aren't interested in causing grief on the Turkish side of the border. Don't know if they've made a sale but the Turks are visiting and listening and looking. The Turks see a threat in islamism. They haven't stuck their heads in the sand. They don't regard freeing a secular country from a hated dictator who is inconvenient to them as necessarily a bad thing at all, especially if it causes huge inconvenience to the Iranians and Saudis, who support islamist activity in Turkey. Islamism is a much bigger threat to Turkey than are Kurd separatists (who are also getting help from the usual suspects). Don't count Turkey out of the equation on the pro-doing-down-Saddam side.

To: Bilow who wrote (27805)	4/30/2002 10:22:40 AM
From: TimF	Respond to of 281500

This is a proud and (in their eyes) used to "freedom" and self rule. They are not going to put up well with being under US occupation any better than the Palestinians have put up with Israeli occupation. Note that our troops in Afghanistan are there by invitation. Not by the Taliban's invitation. (and no I am not saying that Iraq would be like Afghanistan, just that we didn't enter the country at the behest of the power that controled most of it). I undersand and agree with your point that we have to look at worst cases, but I think you are saying or at least implying that the worst case or something near to that is a forgone conclusion. I agree with the idea that it could be a mess and I understand that the possibility of such a mess might be a good reason not to go forward, but I disagree with your apparent assumption that it will be such a mess. The mere possibility might be enough for me to entirely rule out the option if it wasn't for 1 - The liklyhood that if we do nothing that Saddam will get nukes, and 2 - The violations of cease fire agreement giving us justification for an attack. Even with those I am still undecided at this point. I don't think we will have an extended occupation except perhaps at the request of some new government. I don't think anyone in the current administration plans to or even seriously thinks about making Iraq in to a colony. I also don't think Saddam is any more popular then the Taliban was. I don't think most of Iraq feels that free, and the Shia's and the Kurds don't feel they have self rule. I understand that people can and have fought hard for an abusive dictator but I don't think most of the Iraqi army will be that motivated in this case. (Of course the Republican Guard may be a different story and its a lot more powerful then the Taliban's forces where). Human history is filled with examples of people who fought against invaders for decades. All that it takes is hope. I don't think that Iraq's army would have that level of hope and determination. Tim