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To: Earlie who wrote (163154)	5/1/2002 8:48:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Interesting Post from the Yahoo! JPM board - yes! from Yahoo!... :-) ____________________________ messages.yahoo.com Chart of JPM vs. XAU by: bocarat3 04/30/02 07:07 pm Msg: 16191 of 16204 After reading the article about JPM's exposure to gold derivatives, I decided to do some DD. I went to bigcharts and brought up a chart of JPM closing prices for the last six months compared to XAU closing prices. You can do that on bigcharts' interactive charting, but it doesn't reproduce, which is why I didn't post the URL here. Go to bigcharts and look at it - it's an education! The two charts, JPM and XAU, are almost mirror images of each other! When XAU goes up, JPM goes down, and vice versa. Since some regard gold as a contrarian investment, I thought I might be looking at a systematic behavior of all banks vs. gold. So I did the same exercise for other banks as well, like BAC, DB, C and some regionals. NONE have as good an inverse correlation with the gold index as JPM does. They don't even come close. Many of them (like BAC for example) have a DIRECT correlation - they move in the SAME direction as XAU, not OPPOSITE like JPM. What this says to me is either 1) the "goldies" are right and JPM does have a big short exposure to gold, which some market players are aware of, or 2) the goldies have convinced the market and the market PERCEIVES that JPM has an exposure. Either way, JPM has been behaving like an inverse play on gold, at least for the last year or so. If you think gold will go back down, it's a buy. If you think gold will continue to go up, it's a short. My opinion, of course. What do you think? ____________________________ LINK TO a Chart of JPM vs. XAU: quote.yahoo.com