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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (35179)	5/1/2002 9:36:35 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

nspolar, What I tried to do was to look at the gold demand between now and 2006 and the supply that would be available at that time. Also looked at the increasing cost to explore and made an assumption on the productivity of these new mines. Some of these mines certainly will be profitable at $350 per oz including exploration costs but as time goes on I am assuming the mines will be less productive because the finds will have less gold relative to the cost to mine. You could be right that all the gold required to meet demand in 2006 can be serviced by $350 price of gold. What I am seeing now is the large miners are buying small mines with know reserves and as time goes on this will diminish the known reserves more rapidly than if there was large funds spent on exploration today. Bob Johnson has an excellent site where you can look at what is happening to reserves and the size of new finds and demand going forward. This is where I took the numbers and tried to extrapolate forward. Joan