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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XenaLives who wrote (59515)	5/1/2002 8:46:10 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Paula: Re: "Perhaps because your preconception is bearish you seek to fit the chart into a bearish pattern." One starts with whether this is a bull market or a bear market for equities overall. I think it is a bear market and that we have not found a bottom and that the bottoming process will break the BTK at some point. If you think it is a bull market, then go with your "preconception" and go long the "wedge" with a stop loss at the breakdown.

To: XenaLives who wrote (59515)	5/1/2002 9:35:48 AM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 99280

Paula, it's not a falling wedge because a falling wedge is "A downward price trend bounded by two intersecting, down-sloping, trendlines." (Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, p.603.) Only one of these trendlines is down, the other is up. A symmetrical triangle top, on the other hand, is described as a situation wherein "In a rising price trend, prices form lower highs and higher lows following two sloping trendlines that eventually intersect." (p.561.) On the other hand, there is no way to tell ahead of time, from the pattern itself, whether such a triangle will break to the upside or the downside. In fact, Bulkowski found 162 with upside breakouts to 93 that broke to the downside. (Caveat: Bulkowski cautions that his data are from a strong bull market period, which only Ron and the Easter Bunny believe obtain at the moment.) Cheers, augie