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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (9345)	5/1/2002 9:39:19 AM
From: pvz	Respond to of 206183

He did post his change in id: To:jim_p who wrote (8448) From: AVISA GRP Friday, Mar 29, 2002 7:45 AM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9345 Jim MY GREATEST CONGRATS!! to you and all that followed you on your recent calls!! If you are wondering about my new HANDLE, I had requested another handle along w/ my previous handle and they just over rode my old one GREENLAW4-7. I am in thr e process of fixing the problem. I joined you in a big way on PGO, and VPI, and my own triple baggers MIR, CPN and AES. You have a keen insight into this group much more then I have ever read on the web and I thank you for sharing your insight and thoughts . I have had some success w/ my shorts in the oSX over the last 3 weeks. Did well on the last 2 falls from 104 area and have been hedging positions on API reports. Also been doing eextremely well w/ DHI, MDC and HOV short scalps. HOV is such a BS stock that is will just fall one day from 27-22. I have never ever seen such a RAPE OF GREED from the pit traders in Crude in my life time. They have made a FORTUNE by taking the product from 19-27 area in 6 weeks. Perhaps the biggest percentage gain I have seen in such a short time ever. (not including gulf war data) I sold 1/2 of my PGO yesterday on the pop based on my reluctance to be too long going into what I still foresee as an MAJOR ACCIDENT waiting to happen. That does not mean we won't see 110-115 OSX before we see 90, but the bottom line is this is not sustainable and history says we need to retrace that 50 day moving average in the OSX at some point. The reason I am posting here in light of the fact many want my head for being negative OSX, is I recently made a business trip to New Orleans and made an excursion to visit some of the Drilling towns near the gulf and also visited Texas. I was very surprised to see and hear much pessimism about recent drilling down turn. I got the feeling that many of the majors are not biting this rally in crude at least they had not 2 weeks ago from last friday. The reccession seems to be very relevent in the midwest and much more so then the N. east from my take. I got the impression the drillers will dissapoint in the near term and they will be very light on optimism going forward. I even heard from some that the recent move is crude is hurting the near term contracts because their is a reluctance to accept the worst is behind us and the old school majors that still see a bottom cycle that must last longer then 5-6 months to start the next leg up. This did surprise me, because I would have thought a bottom was in for the downturn and we are already in the turn? I'm still not comfortable going long any driller or service stock until I see a touch of 50 day moving average or close to it. I have aready sold 1/2 of my power plays based on what I see as a possible bearish turn on NG. At some point the inventory data will show normal to high buils and the fact non-opec see's 25-27 crude its w/out question they will cheat sooner or later. I would like to hear your opinion on the big picture of the OSX, and if this is just one leg up and a 50% retracement is now in the cards. or are we at the beginning of the next cycle that will not allow a revisit to 90 OSX? Thanks!

To: quehubo who wrote (9345)	5/1/2002 9:58:41 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206183

Q, For the record I have rode the oSX down 3times since we broke above 90 in OSX. I even rode her up from 92 area to 104 2 weeks ago. Yes, I was wrong at the degree of the rally from 85-110, but that does not make me WRONG now. I am + on my OSX trades and doing quite well. I believe more then ever that OSX is accident waiting to happen, and have noticed several stocks show signs of weakness o top. May take a while, but I know one thing when she breaks it will be fast and painful. Good luck! Great action today, I added to my RIG short from yesterday at 3.30.