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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (35196)	5/1/2002 12:27:31 PM
From: pvz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Paul, I would have thought that call buying was a negative, however, combined with the higher vix today, the CPC:VIX ratio should be down. That should be bullish if it continues downwards. The chart I am posting here correlates with market buy signals when the 20dma crosses down over the 100 dma. The only time it may have been negated (as far as I have been able to find) was in the fall of 2000, when the compx declined. To be fair though, the broader market bottomed out in that period, so I consider it to be valid for the broader market. stockcharts.com[e,a]dhllnyay[dd][pb20!b100!b75!b300!f][vc60][J3314185,Y]&pref=G

To: Paul Shread who wrote (35196)	5/1/2002 1:12:18 PM
From: sq39	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Paul Shread, i notice on your CBOE info puts vs calls. on the index section, except for the 9am data all half hour statistics show more puts than calls!!!, it is the equities that show the opposite and are effecting the overall number...

To: Paul Shread who wrote (35196)	5/1/2002 3:45:09 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Interesting. Looks like price on both the DJIA and COMPX are at key points. If price moves up any further, then the trading range has been reestablished and extended with the new support, and a selloff has been avoided for now. The VIX also appears to support this. The Dow put in a spike, and the NASDAQ has continued to remain in a small congestion range, within the price range of a larger previous bar. If follow through does not occur, then I suspect a selloff will follow. Narrow range days are discounted in this scenario, since they are directionless days. We have directional movement outside of the previous trading range that has been effectively "negated" and instead formed a smaller trading range just outside of the previous support. IMO a directional move at this point outside of this small trading range will be a signal worth noting. Remember in a previous post that I observed the markets to be trading in a slower timeframe? This is the reason I took the breach of support as noteworthy. But I was reluctant to take this move as decisive. Sometimes price, particularly in this type of market, can overshoot and temporarily move past key support or resistance. The follow through at that point is important. Price can also move up back within the trading range. This effectively extends the previous trading range. Normally this needs to occur by the end of the current trading day, or by the next trading day with ghusto. The important key here is to note the time price has spent outside of the preexisting trading range. But since the market has been trading in a longer time frame, this temporary intrusion of support can unfold over a period of days instead of by the very next day. As it looks, there appears to be the making of a small bottom on the COMPX. If your were to scale the chart a bit to allow for the "slower" market, I think this would appear as a quick move down and up, a spike. I have seen this situation before. The first time I have noted this phenomenon was when I located spikes on a chart. I then looked at the smaller time frames. This is where I found many spikes tend to be these small double tops and bottoms when looked at in the smaller time frames. But when viewed in a larger time frame, price showed up as a spike. A spike would classify as a temporary intrusion of support or resistance. And this can still be considered a part of the broader consolidation pattern. Once I began to understand the importance of determining the quality of price action, with time being an important component, I began to see this type of situation more clearly. The market does change. And the quality of price action helps determine the type of market you are trading in. So if the market follows through, this is another instance of the market faking out traders. This happens frequently in relationship to congestion trading ranges. And the more well-established the congestion trading range is, the more fakeouts are likely to happen. All of this is IMHO! Any comments? Bob Graham