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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF, a New Plateau -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (1151)	5/1/2002 1:17:34 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2243

>> Are you double counting the value of cash: once in the various program's net value (a use of cash) and again as a cash balance? << Yes. Projects have no value if they can't be funded. To try to balance that act with what I consider to be a near-term attractive buyout in the model, I discounted the cash from 214M to 60M, and kept the RSV/lung project at an attractive 20M. Assets are (03/31) $241M. Book is (03/31) $17M. My valuation is 136M. The traditional biotech investor assumes that assets may lead to pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical-like margins and profits. >> Don't see a reduction for the debt << Cash was discounted by 70%, and, as explained above, the $136M falls way short of current assets. Thanks, very much, for the discussion.

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (1151)	5/2/2002 12:37:25 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2243

so, I'll make it pure for you, and allocate the 0.3X cash........ in the context of $200M, an established research infrastructure, an experienced regulatory group, additional assets, and the slew of lawsuits.......... RSV program, and time on the learning curve, small molecules delivered via inhalation...... $35M. HCV program, post 50406 and given that (1) phase I for the second molecule is targeted 2H02, and (2) the Wyeth/VPHM program is aiming for depth and breadth...... $100M. I presume that's pure enough? If so, please criticize. Is it leveraged? If so, how long would it take for the leverage to come apart, given a lack of visible progress? TIA for any comments.