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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (18592)	5/1/2002 1:43:55 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

"UK is European whenever UK can take an advantage" Unfortunately we are European when it comes time to pay the bill. And we are not getting a good deal. Kind of like the US and the UN. Except the UK pays its Euro bills on time <g>

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (18592)	5/1/2002 11:33:45 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Louis, <<contributor>> More contributions required soonest ... to give new meaning to 'all big things start small'. "In either case, it appears that there are two purposes for the operation: prevention and dispersal. Washington wants to maintain the offensive initiative and keep the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters off balance and unable to organize significant operations of their own. And while it is extremely difficult to track down individual enemy fighters, the United States will concentrate on ensuring that they remain dispersed." Breaking up a packet of cancerous cells is perhaps not a good strategy in asymmetric warfare; letting the opposition concentrate its forces in the field where an eye can be kept on them maybe better. BWTFDIK. We will just have to see. Worst comes to worst, push comes to shove, it would be just two more countries to be lost over a long period of trying. At the peak, the Russians had 118k troops in Afghanistan. I would guess Pakistan and Afghanistan will require upwards of 2-300k troops, and Iran/Iraq another 3-400k. Asymmetric ground/urban warfare is where one unconventional soldier requires the attention of 5-10 conventional ones. Chugs, Jay stratfor.com U.S. Preparing For Larger Operations in Pakistan 1 May 2002 Summary U.S. and coalition military forces are preparing for greater operations inside Pakistan. The primary goal appears to be the dispersal of Taliban and al Qaeda fighters, preventing potential attacks. However, the operations will likely not inflict a decisive blow against the opposing forces. Analysis Hundreds of American and British soldiers in Afghanistan were ferried into mountains east of Gardez April 30, the Afghan Islamic Press reported. The movement appears to be the first phase in a larger operation against Taliban and al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan and western Pakistan. The battlefield is too large -- and U.S. and coalition forces are too small -- to expect a crippling attack against the opposing fighters. However, an offensive operation into Pakistan can break Taliban and al Qaeda forces into even smaller concentrations and potentially prevent future attacks. The deployment near Gardez reportedly includes approximately 700 British Royal Marines and 300 U.S. soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division. The area in question belongs to the Zadran tribe of senior Taliban military commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, one of Washington's most wanted Taliban leaders. The deployment appears to be a blocking force, designed to cut off escape routes and communications and force any nearby Taliban or al Qaeda fighters to hunker down. The initial U.S. and British force could be characterized as an "anvil" being set in place before a "hammer" force is deployed into Pakistan to attack al Qaeda forces there and hopefully drive them toward the border. British, Pakistani and Afghan military sources interviewed by local media expected a significant increase in operations within the next two weeks. It is not yet clear what troops will make up the "hammer" force. It could be the remainder of the U.S. and coalition troops, inserted by helicopter and supported by AC-130 gunships, A-10 attack aircraft and AH-64 Apache helicopters. Or it could mainly comprise Pakistani soldiers, especially the paramilitary light infantry groups such as the Tochi Scouts which have reportedly already been assisting U.S. Special Operations forces inside Pakistan. Either operation heavily depends on the ability and cooperation of the Pakistani military. In either case, it appears that there are two purposes for the operation: prevention and dispersal. Washington wants to maintain the offensive initiative and keep the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters off balance and unable to organize significant operations of their own. And while it is extremely difficult to track down individual enemy fighters, the United States will concentrate on ensuring that they remain dispersed. Following criticism that many enemy fighters escaped during March's Operation Anaconda offensive in eastern Afghanistan, U.S. military planners defended the action by noting that it broke up a large concentration of al Qaeda and Taliban fighters into smaller knots -- often 25 or less. This new operation will be aimed at breaking up the these concentrations even further. A primary focus of the operation will also be the destruction of the Taliban and al Qaeda communications infrastructure. The U.S. military asserts that a relatively complex infrastructure still exists that allows the fighters to coordinate their attacks. If the communications are destroyed or degraded, a dispersed Taliban or al Qaeda force will be a much smaller threat. Of course, U.S. forces still face several familiar problems. The area in question is quite large, about half the size of Massachusetts, and the beginning of summer means that a massive amount of ground cover will be in bloom -- obscuring the views for satellites, Unmanned Air Vehicles and aircraft. Also, there are areas in southeast Afghanistan, with relatively few U.S. troops, that can provide sanctuary should the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters be able to reach them. The strategy for the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters will be to dodge the brunt of U.S. attacks and disperse into the cities, villages or deep into the mountains. This plan will be made easier by the slow pace of the operation. By the time the offensive is in full swing it is extremely likely that many of the fighters will be long gone. Those that remain will engage in conventional insurgent behavior, attacking relatively soft targets like supply depots and command centers. This may already be happening, as attackers fired a rocket early May 1 at a building in Pakistan housing U.S. troops. Looking at the arrangement of forces and the geography of the battlefield, it is highly unlikely that this operation will cripple the Taliban. It will, however, disrupt their activities during May and June -- critical months for the Loya Jirga process of choosing a new government in Afghanistan. It may also create a better environment for U.S. Special Forces troops to hunt individual al Qaeda members.