To: Berney who wrote (10915 ) 5/3/2002 8:06:31 PM From: MonsieurGonzo Read Replies (2) | Respond to TB> doin' OK here xcept for my exposure to anything NAZDX02M ? unemployment rather than inflation ~ whatever, the Fed remains dead: one gets the impression, looking at the TNX.X or TY02M charts ~ that the BONDs are now a better indicator of equity volatility than the VIX.Xthe economy ...wondering if it, the "financial system" is still working (if you know what I mean)producer spending = kapital investment that we need to see, n'est-ce pas ? : where else are you going to put your kapital? how much can you put into GOLD or Small-MidCap/Value fish or offshore Diversified Emerging Markets Funds?: kapital was being squeezed out of perfectly good BigBoy stox, like GE, etc. ~ because they were seen as vulnerable to Fed programme to raise interest rates (risky TechStox were at that time seen as relatively immune to increase cost of kapital because they were believed to be able to raise money by equity = proforma cash flow). The perverse divergence of QTR-1 2000 had the effect of squeezing kapital into fewer and fewer, riskier and riskier TechStox.something's wrong ~ sooner or later, something's got to give because, these are fundamentally opposing forces.real estate and unemployment going up at the same time, I get the same, weird feeling, Berney ~ like, this is some kind of "perverse divergence" all over again ...and something's gotta give.hindsight , my old friend ~ when we look back we see QTR-2 2000 as when the Tech + investment credit Bubble burst ...I wonder if we will see QTR-2 2002 as the time when the real estate + consumer credit bubble blowing up? ! ...a perfect storm ?
