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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (60172)	5/2/2002 10:54:41 AM
From: Ron Dior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Look, I am not against T/A. I realize that it does have its place in investing. I think at times support levels; breakouts, moving averages, etc. can be telling but would NEVER invest my money solely based on these things. Most mistakenly approach T/A with a predetermined stance. i.e. “I’m a bear so I will make my analysis fit my bearish outlook”. They might not think this is what they are doing, because they know it is improper, but in reality this is what happens. Much like an accountant that will make the numbers work to fit his scenario. We see this happening all the time on Wall Street and then complain out of one side of our mouth while with the other side we push the envelope. The market CANNOT be known. The best you can do is guess. This is why 99% of all day traders, though they would never admit it, will lose money. It is worse than gambling! At least when you gamble you know what the odds are. They are set in stone by mathematical law. With the market the odds are ever changing and can’t be known. This makes it more difficult. There is not a T/A out there that can beat these odds. Now with that being said, I do agree that T/A is helpful. You must also know how to read a balance sheet due to the fact that fundamentals are also important. But, these things will not allow you to make the right decisions 90% of the time. You must be able to separate your emotions and learn to buy when it is hard to, and sell when it is most difficult. You need to learn how to define when a particular stock has based and then if it breaks above that base you need to add to your position. The most important thing is that you need to understand and must be able to determine what the future wants. This is difficult but vital. To do this you need a strong base of knowledge on how things work such as technologies, commodities, etc… Then the best you can do is buy and hold these stocks until they either base and break out (add to your position) or the fundamental and technological edges change (sell it and never look back). This takes the guesswork out and limits the amount of gambling. Now if you COMBINE what I have stated above with your T/A and your fundamental readings and your economic prognostication then you MIGHT make money. If this was that easy…. Everyone would live in Bill Gates neighborhood. Ron