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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (117892)	5/2/2002 9:23:18 AM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

David, I suspect when Siemens takes out Motorola, we'll get a much better sense of where they're headed. Your "facts" look at the past - mine are forward-looking; you won't find any links on the internet... -vbg Cheers. Rob edit: btw, have you looked at the membership list of Flarion's alliance?! edit 2: some flarion shortcuts flarion.com flarion.com

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (117892)	5/2/2002 9:24:33 AM
From: jad	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Qualcomm (QCOM) looks like a telecom survivor by Dave Sterman, equity research analyst Fleeing investors create a potential bargain When a hard-charging space like telecom crashes, investors flee first and ask questions later. But once the playing field has been abandoned, it's often time to backtrack, however carefully, in search of ailing stocks that will thrive in the long-term. And this may be a good time to remember Qualcomm (QCOM). Thanks to a flat quarter, this once-legendary growth play looks like just another telecom dud, its shares hovering near a 52-week low. But Qualcomm's future has never looked brighter, which should bring its stock back to life in the quarters to come. Qualcomm's Q2 (March) results weren't as bad as its detractors would have it. Sales of $659 million and EPS of $0.20 were generally in line with expectations. But management took a more cautious stance for the next several years and told analysts to bring down estimates by a few pennies. In the absence of near-term earnings momentum, many investors rushed to the sidelines. But the news flow for Qualcomm should turn decidedly more positive by next quarter. That's because the company's CDMA platform is becoming increasingly popular both here and abroad. Verizon Wireless (VZ) is set to join Sprint PCS (PCS) by adopting this platform, thus triggering higher demand for Qualcomm's CMDA chips. Furthermore, China, India, and other potentially large markets are just starting to ramp up their CDMA platforms. And a move among wireless carriers to more advanced wireless systems is playing right into the company's hands. Later this year, most wireless carriers are expected to make a big push into more advanced cell-phone service that delivers e-mail and web browsing along with traditional voice services. And Qualcomm holds a number of key patents on the underlying technology (known as 1XRTT). So it will profit, either by manufacturing the chipsets, or by receiving high-margin royalties from other manufacturers. The move to 1XRTT is already paying off. S.G. Cowen's Scott Searle estimates that Qualcomm's market share for CDMA shipments grew from 60 percent in December to 75 percent in January. "QCOM's market share should increase as the migration to 1x continues," Searle writes. Shares of Qualcomm are also burdened by the perception that weak spending among big phone companies will crimp the outlook for all telecom technology vendors. But Morgan Stanley's Louis Gerhardy estimates that 90 percent of Qualcomm's profit is driven by demand for wireless cell phones. And that sector should surge later this year, as consumers will need to buy new phones in order to gain access to new features. "New phones with features such as color displays, polyphonic audio, and GPS will be key catalysts to trigger a consumer replacement cycle," predicts Gerhardy in an April 25 report. And the CDMA chips used in those phones generally carry higher profit margins. Qualcomm has also suffered from a perception that low cell-phone prices mean low profits for the company. In many cases, Qualcomm has agreed to charge for components on a percentage rather than flat cost basis in order to help beleaguered cell phone makers keep their own costs down. But J.P. Morgan's Ed Snyder points out that prices have generally stabilized and that, "this year CDMA phone prices are showing no erosion." Over the next few months, Qualcomm is expected to trade in the $30 range. But later this summer, look for a rebound to start in earnest. That's when more advanced CDMA phones will be shipping in larger volumes, putting the company in a position to speak more bullishly about its conservative guidance. Since those new phones enable carriers to bag more revenue per user, "CDMA service providers have an incentive to push the new handsets to subscribers as quickly as possible," notes Gerhady. He sees shares nearly tripling to $80 over the next year as investors come to appreciate Qualcomm's unique business model. For investors with a longer time horizon, Qualcomm is also set to benefit from the rollout of the next generation of CDMA, called Wideband CDMA (WCDMA). That platform, which is still two to three years away from meaningful deployment, will help carriers double their capacity. That means they can carry twice as many calls in the same spectrum, or carry data-intensive messages more efficiently within the same spectrum. WCDMA—and Qualcomm—should generate a great deal of buzz in 2003 as deployment becomes imminent. Dave Sterman is the Director of Research of Chelsea Research and a financial commentator for various news outlets.

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (117892)	5/2/2002 9:25:08 AM
From: samim anbarcioglu	Respond to of 152472

David, <<And they won't need a license from QCOM? Please. >> If Siemens wants to stay in the game, they have to get serious about wcdma, and get going. But when they sell anything cdma, and receive revenue from any such activity, they will need a licence. For late comers the licence price has been heftier. Remember NOK licence purchase, they had to pay a lot more than anyone else.. Regards, Sam A.

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (117892)	5/2/2002 10:27:52 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 152472

We need to take this thread to the vet for a flea dip. Dipy pours salt on wounds yet doesn't trade his convictions and now rob_v is telling us that Siemens does not plan to do UMTS and hence doesn't need a Q license. Bizarre.