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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (1275)	5/2/2002 4:38:29 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 1643

Fri, Apr 26, 2002 - FALLING DOLLAR IS GOOD FOR GOLD murphymorris.com GOLD HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH... Gold prices bottomed just over a year ago near $260 -- and have been rising pretty steadily since then. This week, gold prices touched the highest level in two years. The first chart shows that the next upside target is in the $320-325 zone. The monthly chart puts the gold action into better perspective. First of all, it shows that the low of last year was actually a retest of the previous low formed during 1999 -- setting up a potential "double bottom" reversal pattern. It also shows the next upside resistance barrier near $325 formed by the late-1999 peak. That looks like the next upside target. To actually "complete" a major bullish breakout, however, gold would have to exceed the $325 level. In other words, the major bull market in gold could be just starting -- and may have a long ways to go. There are usually two ingredients that support a rising gold price -- falling stock prices and a weak dollar. We all know stocks have been dropping. How about the dollar? .......................................................................................................................... DOLLAR DROPPING FAST... The first chart shows the dollar falling under its 200-day moving average this week -- and dropping to the lowest level this year. That's certainly helping gold prices. The second chart is even more ominous for the dollar. Depending on how we read it, the weekly chart could either be a potential "head and shoulders" top (with 3 peaks) or a "double top" which would include only the last two peaks. In either case, it's potentially bearish. We've drawn a rising trendline under the lows of the past year (which sits near 114). A decisive break of that line would, in our opinion, be even more bearish for the dollar -- and even more bullish for gold -- since they usually trend in opposite directions. ............................................................................................................................ GOLD STOCKS LEAD BULLION... Another factor supporting higher bullion prices is the rising Gold (XAU) Index. That's because gold stocks have a history of turning up before gold. The first chart shows the XAU Index breaking through its highs of last April earlier this year to initiate a new uptrend. The XAU is now trading at the highest level in more than two years. The green relative strength line along the bottom shows that gold stocks have been outperforming the S&P 500 for the last year and a half. Some may be wondering if it's too late to commit some funds to the gold sector. We don't think so. Chart 6 shows why. The Gold Index is in the very early stages of an apparent new uptrend. The six-year bear market (red) trendline was broken this January. The XAU has to climb 25% just to reach its next upside target near 95. We think there's a strong chance that next target will be reached -- and eventually exceeded. We've said it before -- and we'll say it again. We believe everyone should own some gold stocks -- either individually or through a gold mutual fund.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (1275)	5/3/2002 4:10:07 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1643

I don't imagine that the total amount of copper consumed in chillers is that great compared to its biggest use in building construction Depends on how those stats are gathered. Does heating units fall under the "construction" category? If so heat pumps and AC should too. Heat pumps certainly should as they are used instead of other central heating units. Have a look at a AC unit (or a car radiator for that matter). A large chunk of copper in both. Here is another look at the usage of copper. marketdata.copper.org "plumbing and heating" is a big slice of the pie. I wonder how much of this is confused with "AC and commercial refrigeration" The "all other" category is also very large. I wonder if the "automotive, non electrical" category is car radiators (which are usually copper). A fairly large chunk of the market. I mention this because we have had some hot summers recently. I would like to see a general category called "heat transfer medium" (i.e not simple pipes, just radiator etc). That would clarify things for me. Copper is the best for that Anyway, there seems to be a renewed interest in copper markets.ft.com ----------------------------------------------------------- Anglo American eyes Chilean ExxonMobil assets By Matthew Jones Published: May 1 2002 20:05 \| Last Updated: May 1 2002 23:10 Anglo American, the world's second-largest mining group, is in talks to buy ExxonMobil's Chilean copper interests for a price estimated at about $1.3bn. Observers said on Wednesday that Anglo was looking to buy the US oil group's Disputada de Las Condes mine in an effort to strengthen its base metals business. A deal was expected soon. ExxonMobil has been trying to sell Disputada for a year as part of a wider strategy to quit its non-oil and gas businesses following its merger with Mobil. Rival bidders Codelco and Antofagasta of Chile pulled out from the auction last month after offering less than Anglo. It is understood this has given Anglo, based in Johannesburg and also listed in London, a clear run at the acquisition. Anglo stoked speculation it was on the look-out for acquisitions when it raised $1.1bn through a convertible bond issue last month. It is thought to be anxious to bolster its international base metals business, which is weak compared with competitors such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. It makes most of its profits from gold, platinum and diamonds. Anglo this year abandoned plans to produce up to 350,000 tonnes of copper a year at its Konkola mine in Zambia, which it bought two years ago, and is now negotiating to sell or close the mine following a review. The acquisition of Disputada would give it a more modest 250,000 tonnes a year of production but this would be about 40 per cent cheaper to produce than at Konkola. One analyst said the fair value of Disputada was $800m-$1bn, making Anglo's offer appear high.