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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnsto1 who wrote (6262)	5/2/2002 12:08:30 PM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 52153

I am somewhat surprised about all the focus on Embrel and the price paid. I did some research the other day and was surprised. Remicade actually outsold Embrel in Q1 $245 MM to $225 MM. I know this is due to lack of mfg capacity for Embrel, but man, no one ever comments that JNJ is in the lead here. Jon

To: johnsto1 who wrote (6262)	5/6/2002 11:37:18 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

I suppose only liars or the lucky (my goal) would actually hit an exact bottom after this kind of a swoon, but man this is looking close to me! Besides the compelling valuations, the extreme liquidation by biotech mutual fund holders is signaling classic and rather mindless "afterthought selling" crowd psychology. It's almost as if they see these on their statements and think (derisively), "I own that?" and then "I'm not supposed to". Rydex BTK: 8-07-00 was 685.0m 10-27-00 600.0 m 1-02-01 was 511.0 m 7-01- 2001 was 433.9m 10-17- 2001 was 289.5m 1-30-02 was 267.8m 4-6-02 was 217.0 5-3-02 was 179.3 m, a full 58.7% reduction in fund assets from just 10 month ago and 74% from the bubble top. That's a major, almost epic sector capitulation. I'd say we are very near the point where everybody who has thought about selling this has sold. An example of what happens when a sector gets completely out of favor and neglected: Rydex Precious Metals 7-1-01: 27.2 10-17-01: 55.4 1-30-02: 71.7 4-6-02: 70.6 5-3-02: 74.7 Nice bounce/powerful rally, and the most rewarding sector to have owned during the period, but still not too terribly popular: many nonbelievers. Back at the biotech casino, specialists refuse to make a market in the stocks. From the AM action so far: CRGN down 35 cents on a whopping 149,500 shares IMGN down 44 cents on 73,700 shares Or how about HYSQ, down 18 cents (4.77%) on 10,400.