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Microcap & Penny Stocks : NVEI (Was NVXE) - New Visual Entertainment Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockDung who wrote (2113)	5/6/2002 11:48:31 PM
From: Bill Pearson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2211

Yawn...

To: StockDung who wrote (2113)	6/8/2003 5:47:02 PM
From: blebovits	Respond to of 2211

Geezers nearly there? If not believers, then veterans at least are less skeptical By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 2, 2003 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Enthusiasm infects the geezers - except for the real grumps. HULBERT FINANCIAL DIGEST To order an Individual Newsletter Profile on any of the newsletters tracked by the HFD, click here. To order the HFD Monthly Newsletter, click here. Get the latest HFD Newsletter Honor Roll, click here. The geezers is my playful name for the letters who were around at the last bear market low, in 1974. They've been skeptical of all rallies for the past year or so. But now the geezers' skepticism is significantly reduced. It's a matter of nuance rather than numbers. For example, Richard Moroney's Dow Theory Forecasts is no more exposed (80 percent) than when I last checked the geezers (See May 2 column). But he noted in a hotline at the end of last week that "the Dow Industrials have moved within striking distance of 8,931.68, and a close above this level would confirm the market's trend as bullish under the Dow Theory." On Friday, the Dow closed at 8,850.26 -- darn close. But here's the first caveat of this column: Mark Hulbert follows three Dow Theory services. And they all have different buy signal targets. The big news over the past month is that the veteran editor of one such service, Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, is now telling his readers "go with the flow or at the very least -- think with the flow. And right now, until proved otherwise, the flow is due north." Russell still regards this as a secondary rally in a bear market. He is still out of the market with his Hulbert-monitored portfolio, although, in his artful way, he's suggested his more daring clients buy Diamonds (DIA: news, chart, profile) and Spiders (SPY: news, chart, profile) (and now says to raise stops). Russell says a "full" confirmation of the Transports would entail the Dow closing above 9.053.64 -- its August 22 close. But -- second caveat -- Russell's macreconomic view remains dark. He still sees massive fiscal imbalances, a housing bubble, a fragile stock market richly valued by historic measures. I watch Russell, despite his notorious ambiguity, because I've seen him call major junctures over nearly three decades. (See March 3 column). It's possible he may be about to give a sudden all-out buy signal as he did in 1974. But, after 60ears watching the market, Russell factors in stuff that even he doesn't always seem aware of. I'd guess there's enough worrying him right now to keep him long-term bearish for a while. Third caveat of this column: Some of CBS MarketWatch.com's readers have e-mailed to ask why I don't just add up the stock market exposure of the geezers, rather than providing all this purple prose. The answer is not just innumeracy. I'm doing some factoring of my own. For example, I'm bothered that some long-established services may have changed personnel so much that they may have no institutional memory -- Dow Theory Forecasts, Value Line, S&P. Others editors trade so often that their stance on anything can't be regarded as solid. (See table below). And some have better records than others, by Hulbert Financial Digest count. Right now, of the four best pure market timers among the geezers, two (Dan Sullivan of the Chartist, Gerald Appel of Systems and Forecasts) are bulls; two, Richard Russell and Michael Burke of Investor's Intelligence, are bears. I factor that to mean we're nearly out of the woods -- but not quite. Newsletter Editor Exposure 5/30/03 Comments Cabot Market Letter Carlton Lutts 100 percent Active trader Chartist Dan Sullivan 50 percent Dines Letter Jim Dines -100 percent Short-, med.-, long-term models all negative Dow Theory Forecasts Richard Moroney 80 percent Dow Theory Letters Richard Russell 0 percent Granville Mkt. Letter Joe Granville 100 percent Active trader Growth Fund Guide Walter Rouleau 68.6 percent Gold & defensive funds Growth Stock Outlook Charles Allmon 23 percent Superbear Intl. Harry Schultz Harry Schultz ? Bearish; hard to glean percent Investment Quality Trends Geraldine Weiss ? Market still not undervalued Investors Intelligence Michael Burke 0 percent S&P's Outlook Arnold Kaufman 65 percent Systems and Forecasts Gerald Appel 100 percent Active trader Value Line Inv. Survey Value Line, Inc. 80 percent Editor's note: The most recent edition of the Hulbert Financial Digest is now available by either e-mail or regular mail. Highlights include profiles of Bob Brinker's Marketimer, The Dines Letter, Dow Theory Forecasts, a complete performance scorecard and more. For more information or to subscribe to the Hulbert Financial Digest, click here.