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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (60811)	5/2/2002 6:42:28 PM
From: Rock_nj	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

True, about how far some EMC, ORCL, etc have fallen. But, hardcore bigcap tech stocks like INTC, IBM, etc. have been holding up relatively well compared to the 2nd and 3rd tier. What if earnings really do start to recover later this year and in early 2003. Do you still think we'll see a sub 1000 NAZ washout in a year? Don't get me wrong, I'm open to the bear case. But, I'm trying to figure out how realistic it is. Because it doesn't really seems that realistic unless you think demand for tech and earnings are going to fall another 50% from already depressed levels. And I don't think that's the case. In fact, I think we might see a nice rebound in tech spending next year as companies start replacing computers and taking on delayed IT projects.

To: westpacific who wrote (60811)	5/2/2002 6:52:09 PM
From: farkarooski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

ORCL is $8s SUNW is $6s IBM is crushed AOL is $18s going on single digits EMC is $8s NT is $3s LU is $4s TYC is $20 Wouldn't you think that maybe buying CSCO isn't such a good idea here? I mean, wouldn't it make sense that CSCO is gonna see single digits like all the rest more than likely? Simple logic dicates that that will happen. DOesn't mean it will happen, hell, maybe this is as low as CSCO ever goes, BUT why would anyone in their right mind pick this as its lows? Herein lies the reason why we have a LONG way down to go more than likely. Because people (investors) are so scared to miss the bottom that they keep chasing these POS stocks down further and further. ORCL is $8.50s TODAY! TODAY! Am I the only one who has been saying this would happen? Nope. One of the very few, but not the only one. BUT, 99.9% of investors kept buying these stocks in the hope that they would go back up and get them their money out. Not only hope, most actually feel that they HAVE to go up in the long run. One only has to watch Larry Kudlow and Cramer to see how the investor thinks. Kudlow said on air that Nasdaq would see 10,000 in 10 years. That was about 2 years ago. How's he doing? He's only 8400 points off. Nasdaq would have to rise over 1000 points a year to hit his target. Cramer has been calling AOL since $30s and higher saying its a great company. The stock can't even rally when we rally and is at new lows here nearly every day. CSCO will hit single digits. We've said it many a time. Like many other techs it has a cult following and people refuse to give up on it, but ultimately reality sets in and these stocks hit the places they have to hit. The problem with the market is that everyone still is tech happy. You ask the average investor what they have most of their money in and STILL they will tell you TECH. Why? It's actually very simple. GREED. The #1 problem with capitalism is that it preys on greed to those that refuse to work hard. The hard workers know that you don't get rich overnight. They aren't worried about getting rich with Tech stocks for the most part. It's the lazy investors who don't want to miss the next great runup. They keep buying techs, dollar cost averaging down, because they KNOW they will eventually come back and thus they'll make their millions that way. The problem is that they are NEVER coming back. NEVER. You heard it here 2 1/2 years ago and you hear it here all the time. They are NEVER coming back. IBM will not see a new high, CSCO has no shot in hell of ever seeing a new high, same with INTC, EMC and 1000s of others. BRCD will see single digits. It WILL, I am short it and have been riding it for some time and am up nicely on it. When it hits single digits you can all thank me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, life goes on. Why? Because I'll cover and not take a beating. Investors don't EVER "cover". They keep holding and hoping and have a false bravado. They have the same Hubris that Cramer has when he says that AOL is a great company and is a good buy at $30s and then $25 and then $20. Instead of looking at the reality, they won't let go. GLW is $6s, the same price it was when the great Bull run started a few years ago. JDSU coming back? JDSU will probably be out of business within a year. Maybe, maybe not, but for sure it ain't coming back to life for its investors, that I am sure of. For those that think that CSCO has more upside than downside, think again. Anything is possible, granted, but if I had to wager, I'd be wagering that CSCO sees $5 before it sees $28. That's just a fact, Jack. See ya on the other side, WAXIE dude, are you actually Waxie, the one and only one trendfund dude