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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (11263)	5/3/2002 12:39:26 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

My own fear is that tech is anticipating an impending sell-off in the senior indices and what that means for enterprise capex hopes. From Briefing tonight: General Commentary If you've been a regular reader of this page over the past couple of months, then you know that we're more than a little flummoxed by the sector's recent behavior... That the Nasdaq moved to the low point of its recent range was understandable, if not entirely expected... That it retraced slightly more than 62% of its September-January rally was also not without precedent and, as such, not a complete surprise... What we do find bewildering, however, is the apparent capitulation on the part of investors both big and small. Yes, earnings haven't snapped back as quickly as some had hoped; yes, IT (investment technology) spending remains very sluggish; and yes, aggressive, debt-reliant strategies employed by many companies in the once fast growing telecom sector proved a disaster once the economy slowed and debt/equity funding dried up... When combined these factors certainly offer little encouragement... Nevertheless, a "rational" market quickly and, in some cases painfully, prices in the known. So we ask, is anybody really shocked by the sector's lousy fundamental backdrop? Haven't these problems been daily fodder for the financial media, which feed the frenzy and now can't stop from belittling the very analysts they built up in the first place? If so, why all the hand wringing and why the relentless selling? Do all of you out there think that stocks such as Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Oracle (ORCL), EMC (EMC), JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and AT&T Wireless (AWE) are headed for technology scrap heap? That's certainly what it looks like based on the herd mentality which has driven these shares to lows not seen in years... Briefing.com, for one, doesn't think so. Times are tough and they may remain difficult for another few months... But for anyone willing to look, there's light at the end of the tunnel... The economy is slowly but steadily improving; corporate earnings are levelling off and beginning to show more signs of improvement; small- to mid-cap stocks continue to perform admirably in this gloomy environment; interest rates and inflation remain historically low; the federal government is doing its part to stimulate the economy; and there's plenty of sidelined cash available to fuel gains once the fear factor dissipates... If the secret to successful investing is, as Mark Mobious once said, "to buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying" then now must be the time for long-term investors to be buying. Robert Walberg