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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3001)	5/3/2002 10:51:30 AM
From: cordob	Respond to of 95471

Hi All, I thought you might be interested in this table which I posted on the Fool yesterday: (regarding the new SIA numbers) These guys (The Semiconductor Industry Association, SIA) are terribly confusing in their reporting of the numbers. In their press releases they are talking about the 3-month moving average of semiconductor billings, but they also report separately on their website the monthly figures in pdf format. see their website: www.semichips.org (do not confuse with the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials industry( SEMI), people like AMAT, which only reports 3-month moving averages, see www.semi.org, but these do not directly pertain to chips and are often quoted as such. (It never became clear to me whether that is a leading or trailing indicator for the chip industry:) They are also a bit sloppy in reporting. They reported a number of $ 10.01B for the qtr till feb on march 29 and that report still stands unchanged; also now they report a 7.2% increase from the $10.03 billion level reached in February, so I have back corrected my spreadsheet figures for that:( So to make it clear: In today's release they are talking about the 3-month ma (jan/feb/mar) being up by 7.2% sequentially, so over (dec/jan/feb). The recent monthly numbers were (no m.a.) month tot billings 3mo m.a. month w/o same mo same mo yr ago $M seasonal year ago w/o seasonal oct01 9524 10439 9585 16733 16839 nov01 9788 10604 9561 16940 16548 dec01 11226 10179 9937 19983 17689 jan02 9014 10009 10143 12965 14590 feb02 9853 10031 10706 13500 14669 mar02 13380 10749 11706 16772 14674 Note: the 3rd number columns is the secular trend as I removed the seasonal pattern from the (monthly) time series. I only used data from jan 1996 for the determintion of the seasonals, really should do more, but did not have the time now to enter all the data manually. Note2: we are still WAY behind a year ago, but that trend(w/o the seasonal) does look good, it is up 18% in a quarter. Another thing which causes me some concern is that they report this about dram vs. other chips: The sales increase was dominated by a record 82.4% sales rise in the DRAM market, with essentially flat sales in other product areas as forecasted. The DRAM sales are a result of increased demand and price increases from the depressed levels of 2001. This says in addition if we have dram and other chips, that at first dram was 9% of total chips and it went up to 15% of total chips in this period. This does not look too bad for the dram market, which is known to be highly cyclical. Cheers Cor PS all these various organisations can be found (links and descriptions on my website www.chipstocks.net on the semiconductor sites link at the top)