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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dave Gore who wrote (6712)5/3/2002 12:12:27 PM
From: hotlinktuna  Respond to of 16631
 
Yeah Dave...too rich. I averaged down on AMRN 8.74 -.71 now and I'm in much higher but they're supposed to earn 1.4 this year per one analyst...awefully cheap looking to me but apparently not bottomed yet...tuna



To: Dave Gore who wrote (6712)5/3/2002 1:47:17 PM
From: hotlinktuna  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16631
 
Dave! Dale found another super one: PFI 9.45 +.20 ...Tuesday April 23, 10:31 am Eastern Time
Press Release
SOURCE: Pelican Financial, Inc.
Pelican Financial, Inc. Q1 Net Income Rises 1,790%
Bank Subsidiary to Open Third Branch Office
ANN ARBOR, Mich., April 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Pelican Financial, Inc. (Amex: PFI - news) posted a 1,790% increase in net income for the first quarter of 2002, Charles C. Huffman, President and CEO, announced today.

The strong rebound in earnings from the year-earlier Q1 net loss reflects higher mortgage volume and noticeably improved results at Washtenaw Mortgage Company and solid growth and a surge in profitability at Pelican National Bank.

For the three months ended March 31, 2002, net income rose 1,790% to $3,290,324, or $0.75 per share, from a net loss of $194,602, or $0.04 per share, for the first quarter of 2001. Results for Q1 2001 include a charge of $420,495, or $0.10 per share, for the effect of a change in accounting principle. There were no comparable adjustments for this year's first quarter.

At Washtenaw Mortgage Company, net income surged 1,046% to $3,028,254, compared with a net loss of $320,271 for the year-earlier quarter. In the main, the improvement came from a 22% increase in mortgage volume, which increased to $715,000,000 from $586,000,000 for 2001's first quarter. The results for Q1 2001 include an accounting charge of $420,495 for a change in accounting principle. For the quarter, net interest income rose 184%, to $2,089,901, from $736,088 a year ago; and noninterest income increased 152% to $10,052,868, from $3,987,044.

Pelican National Bank's results were equally positive. Net income increased 84% to $401,602, from $217,946 a year ago. Noninterest income rose 314% to $175,722, from $42,492 for 2001's first quarter. The strong gain came from higher service charges and fees and gains on the sale of mortgage servicing rights and loans.

At the close of the period, the Bank's total assets were $156,577,303, up 34% over the year-earlier quarter; net loans were $103,279,228, an 11% improvement over 2001's first quarter; and total deposits were $127,051,607, or 38% over Q1 2001.

Mr. Huffman said, ``We're quite pleased with results at both subsidiaries. At Washtenaw Mortgage, profitability improved and our mortgage volume remained strong. At Pelican National Bank, we posted excellent balance sheet growth and improved upon key ratios and our profitability.

``Looking at 2002, we are optimistic about the second quarter and second half. The economy genuinely appears to be on the mend. Home sales and mortgage activity continue at a hearty pace. At Washtenaw Mortgage, we are adding new, pivotal online processing capabilities that will speed, automate and simplify mortgage processing for the 1,500+ mortgage brokers that we serve across the nation's 41 states. At Pelican National Bank, we expect growth in loan demand and more stability in interest rates. We have received approval from regulators to open our third branch office. The new branch will be located in San Carlos, Florida, just north of Naples. We are completing renovations now and expect to open that branch around midyear.''

Pelican Financial, Inc. (PFI) is the holding company for Washtenaw Mortgage Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Pelican National Bank, Naples, Florida. Founded in 1981, Washtenaw Mortgage Company is a leading wholesale mortgage banker. Pelican National Bank, founded in 1997, is a full service community bank with branches in Naples, and Fort Myers, Florida.

Safe Harbor Provision. This news release contains forward-looking statements, pursuant to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private
Are these awesome earnings or what! I jumped in and will wait for double digits to come soon I'd think...in 52wk high ground now...tuna



To: Dave Gore who wrote (6712)5/3/2002 3:37:22 PM
From: hotlinktuna  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16631
 
Dave...PFI now 9.85 +.60 may go double digits yet today! Holding into next week myself regardless....tuna



To: Dave Gore who wrote (6712)5/5/2002 4:42:01 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 16631
 
IMO biotechs have clearly hit the value investor radar screen. Further, sentiment:
Message 17422386
has gotten so lopsided that I'm betting very big now that at minimum a substantial trading rally is in the works, and maybe more. Obviously there has been some big fund outflows and the specialists don't appear to be making much of a market.

I'm using McCamant's MTSL to get the right exposure to the technology (he provides extensive pipeline commentary)and then apply my own valuation work. Right now it's truly a Graham and Dodd exercise, and that's very unusual for this sector. I doubt if they've ever been cheaper. Catalyst? A new FDA? Not likely, but seriously how about a drug approval or two out of them. Or even a commissioner? It could happen, as after all the well being of millions is at stake.

There will be some significant drugs coming out of this list. To ballpark the "real option value" of a new high margin drug, I assign a rough "post-bubble" MC factor of five times sales. Most of the names I use still have solid treasuries and advanced pipelines, and they all have nominal TVs in relation to options value.

Thumbnails: (note some of pipeline info may be slightly dated, as progress is regularly recorded). Would suggest MTSL for timely coverage.
bioinvest.com

ICOS: 60.00m shares out @ 25.08= MC (market cap) 1.504b -Net Working Cap (NWC) of 433m = Technology Value: 1.071b,
plant (p): 20m Phase III: Cialis for erectile dysfunction, Pafase for severe sepsis, Sifaxsetan for hypertension

AVAN: 58.0m out @ 1.74= MC 100m - 38 NWC= 62m TV
III: rotavirius vaccine with GLX
III: cholera vaccine
II: cholestral vaccine
also involved with defense dept anti-terrorist vaccine work

CEGE: 35.6 out @ 12.56= MC 447m - 191 NWC = 256m TV, p: 55m II: GVAX for about six cancers, CG for three cancers, full preclinical slate

INSM: 32.9 out @ 2.72= MC 89- 43m NWC = 46 TV
II: type 2 diabetes, II: polycystic ovary syndrome, II: diabetes, insulin control

CRXA: 41.1 out @ 5.23= MC 215m - 28 NWC= 187m TV p: 40m
III- Bexxar and 9 other II and III prospects.

IMGN: 39.8 out @ 8.00= MC 318m - 138 NWC= 180m TV, p: 5
TAP (antibody) technology

ISIS: 51.8 out @ 11.88= MC 615- 170 NWC= 445 TV p: 36
big pipeline: two in III, seven in II, 4 in pre-clinical

MAXM: 23.85 out @ 4.85= 115 MC - 136 WC= 0 TV (a "net net" as market is giving investor's the tech for zero, and throwing 20m cash for free)
III: cephlene - melonomia, II: hep C, II: renal cell, III: leukemia

RZYM: 20.0 out @ 1.43= 28 MC - 45 MWC= O TV, p: 4
another net net, tech for zero, 17m cash for free.

MDCO: 34.6 out @ 9.21= 318 MC - 54 NWC= 264 TV
has an approved cardiology drug called Angiomax, that is being marketed. Anticipated 2002 rev: 40m, possible 200m plus target.

IDEV: Message 17355945

I also purchased hybrid pharma/advance bio Elan @ 10.83

Two non-McCamant picks of mine in the genome sector, which IMO has overshot on the downside:

HGSI: 128.3 out @ 15.36= MC 1.970b- 1.203 NWC= 767 TV, p: 101
large early stage clinical effort, expect to send several a year into trials.

CRGN: 48.8 out @ 8.32= MC 48.8out - 318 NWC= 88 TV
early stage clinical effort with a number of key pharma partners (Bayer) paying for research.