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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (18630)	5/3/2002 10:46:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi DJ, Latest forex rates boosted my YTD USD nominal returns to 2.32% (WOW). I will count my blessings; at least what little there is, larger relative to overall equity market. Watching O'Neil perform on the topic of USD was fun. He was between a rock and another rock, tied together with rubber bands. Twin deficits and a more-than-healthy dollop of debt-glue cementing the J6P to his necessary role tend to have that paralyzing effect. The solution should thus be obvious for any decent empire-building administration. Seize the oilfields everywhere directly or indirectly, continue to globalize Indonesia, India and China, keep creditor Japan in line, either seize the gold mines or encourage the sale of gold until having to seize the mines, print lots of USD, be prepared to do an Argentina on the external creditors, and definitely do not dismantle the really big bombs. Yikes, am I too close to the truth? The scenario, if actually playing, has a limited window of play, unless one can indeed puzzle all of the people for all eternity. In such a scenario, what is a global investor to do? Putting it in another way, if we treat the current reality as a fractal scale-up of Argentina 12 months ago, what should we do now? Buy oil & gas companies, buy physical gold, buy real estate, sell dollar, borrow Yen, stop frivilous spending. All frivolity worth having will be cheaper, and all matters necessary will become intolerably expensive. Hope global ex-Japan investor-electorates continue to wake up from the Matrix-induced reality faster than the poorer-every-minute Japanese investor-electorates (before they pull their wealth nuts out of the fire), until the looting is done, fire has been put out, and blame apportioned. J6P is already doing the real estate in exchange for borrowed dollar trade, ultimately Yen financed, of course. J6P will eventually get with the program to buying O&G companies, and physical gold. O’Neil must keep Japanese interest rate close to zero, and repatriation down to levels below notice. Japan, reluctantly, is the key to Pandora's box. US is encouraging Japan to (a) re-arm, and (b) participate fully in WAT and whatnot, thus (c) piss off its neighbors, and (d) piss off oil suppliers, and consequently (e) continue to be a dependable ally in economic scheme. Will the retiring wealthy Japanese want to play how to be gradually poor? Where does Europe stand in this entire big picture scenario? Perhaps we can do a piece for Foreign Affairs magazine? Maybe I am asking too many questions? Chugs, Jay