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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pbull who wrote (50954)5/4/2002 12:19:16 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
two comments: decline in US$, consumer credit cards

agreed, media spin on dropping dollar will be the benefits to US exporters, our competitive edge restored
but they will underestimate the extent to which a decade of momentum can occur, slowly and inexorably
currencies typically enjoy a decade of trend
the real harm will come to US assets first
collapsing asset bubbles take years to resolve
declining dollar will unleash forces unseen in this country
we have never had such a large trade debt before
the imported inflation effect could be horrible

consumers continue to use credit cards
I believe before this 00 decade is over, fully 15% of American households will have declared bankruptcy
in the 1980's the second income provided financial means
they have no third income, which is sorely needed
that gap is supplied by mounting debt
the crescendo to MCdebt is its final phase upward explosion
the tendency is to see the end in sight, and accelerate
with Ch13 filing only months away and a certainty, the human tendency is to spend in a final hurrah
been there, done that, gonna happen
/ jim