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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kendall harmon who wrote (16782)	5/4/2002 11:26:17 AM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 26752

The USD, IMO, a huge part of why our markets are so ill. Overseas money is now leaving our markets because of this. USD Broke down out of a bearish descending triangle, so the broken trendline is now resistance, just like on the Nasdaq and NDX. USD Daily mywebpages.comcast.net USD weekly - you can see how the uptrend line from 1999 was broken last week mywebpages.comcast.net The dollar broke down two weeks ago, the NDX, SOX, BTK and many others started really cracking at the same time. ALL of them from bearish descending triangles, a pattern that sets up after consistent lower highs while a baseline of support holds. NDX broken descending triangle - BTK and SOX look similar mywebpages.comcast.net Here is a chart of the descending triangle breakdown in August 2001, along with the one from last week. mywebpages.comcast.net It shows how the bottom trendline of the descending triangle that was broken in 2001 was such strong resistance that the index was unable to make it back to that level until after the big washout in September, and ONLY got over during the false breakouts/bulltraps this past January and February. What's REALLY interesting to see on this chart, is the March highs - the top we just put in stopped EXACTLY at the broken trendline from last year, showing that it is still resistance. The only reason it broke through early this year IMO, was those sharp short covering rallies ramped it over. The similarity in the patterns is scary. Until there is some real fear and capitulation out there, instead of this slow painful drip down, I think the same scenario will play out this time. Everyone talks about how the DOW is doing great, but it came very close to breaking the 200 SMA yesterday, only last minute short covering closed it back above. A technical nightmare if that index breaks that MA next week. We are definitely in short or sell all rally mode, just like last spring/summer it seems. Until we get a REAL washout, when no one wants to own stocks, like we have seem several times in the past few years, I don't think it's going to change for a while.