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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: infopleez who wrote (11762)	5/5/2002 10:50:33 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

infopleez, Quite a few years back, Greenspan noted what may have become an economic principle to the powers that be, in a statement he made. Roughly quoting from memory, "the appearance of inflation is as (or more?) important in its economic effects than the actual inflation itself". Afraid I don't have a link to that statement, perhaps someone would supply it. My interpretation of that statement, which may be simplistic, is that the temptation for government, having discovered this "principle", has been to engage itself for some time in avoiding all appearances of inflation. The primary manifestation of which we may see whenever the much vaunted government reports of CPI PPI are published. While we are not yet at the point where actual historical revision appears feasible, Big Brother style, revisionist interpretation of economic history could possibly be an ongoing event in the financial news media and government reports. Price history is a factor that cannot be erased from our memories. However titillated our minds may be at times from various reports of little to no inflation over recent years, we still cannot deny our own very real memories of nickel candy bars and ten cent cokes (or whatever example fits your age bracket). Or the fact that a very nice brick rancher built in 1972 on a nice lot in a desirable suburban location could be bought for <$20,000 but now the same house costs close to $200,000. (This is anecdotal to my area, but is close enough to average experience for the US I believe). Gold likewise is close to the 10:1 ratio for it's price now versus 1972. Using the simple candy bar to houses and gold parameters, the minimum wage has not quite kept up. A lagging indicator most likely: dol.gov Of course what confuses the matter to the common mind is the fact that wages and prices do not go up in lockstep. Here is a quote from a website that sums this up: Question: Have you been led to believe inflation is dead and it's the lowest ever? Should you believe it? Answer: Don't believe it!! It's the highest in 10 years, higher than in other nations, and 4 times higher than the 1950s when a family did just fine with one wage earner. Few citizens know that a few years ago government changed how they measure and report inflation, as if that would stop it - - but families know better when they pay their bills for food, medical costs, energy, property taxes, etc. Is inflation a threat to society, beside the prices we pay and the fact fewer children have a full-time mother at home? Consider this famous quote: "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." Lord John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), renowned British economist. While I do not believe all the figures given in the following website from which the above quote is excerpted are true, simply because they are not properly explained or sourced, the fact is that figures of 8 or 10 thousand dollars are currently given as the average family credit card debt. (I would also note that the above website seems a bit histrionic) Still, it is commonly reported that many people have been tapping cash from the equity in their homes and the average householders equity level in those homes has not been going up in lockstep with the homes prices. This is supported in my own experience by simply listening to peoples conversations at work or by viewing the amount of plastic used in stores and noting the figures on how many people pay off their credit card balances every month. The bottom line is, if even a portion of what is contained in the following website is true, the US will someday be in deep Schitt, as appearances can't be maintained forever: mwhodges.home.att.net I won't be able to answer any posts today, as I am going out and about to enjoy a beautiful day, which is still fortunately not subject to either price inflation, government fiat or interpretations of what color the emperor's virtual clothes are. I am merely tendering the above for discussion which I will rejoin later and suggest the focus be on when (and perhaps what) the day of reckoning might be if the matter of current economic statistics ever meets its anti matter, the actual current economic state. Are we living in the United States of Enron??? Best Regards, Roebear