Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (61818)	5/5/2002 11:51:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

Have you seen max pain fail in low option volume months? This was an ongoing hypothesis. It may or may not be correct. I do not know the numbers of options in the the taimeframe starting last August-Sept. I do seem to recall February being lighter than January and March but I am not positive of this (but max pain was met in Feb anyway). Do we get the biggest drops when options in general are light? Do not know that either. It is clear that the rally has stalled, there is a dearth of buyers and the only question remains is how low can they wratchet this mess down. Can they rally us if CSCO says something bad? Well I believe barring panic, they can rally this mess whenever they want, sending more $ to money heaven, just as they did in March with a nearly insane ramp job in semis. Now look. Bios beat to a pulp, telecom beat to a pulp, wireless beat to a pulp, software getting crushed but not to the pulp stage yet, but semis more or less at insane valuations (AMAT KLAC NVLS among others). I do not think we botom until semis bottom and they could fall in half and still be expensive. If semis do fall in half where will the market be? I am alos bothered by the strength in QLGC EMLX BRCD fiber-channel hype nonsense. There will always be bastions of strength, but I see too many bastions of strength for this to be the bottom. Hotel reservation systems (EXPE and ROOM) amazingly absurd, I had this crap as a fund manager I would have sold long ago. Too much hype following (OVER should fall in half again), as well as all the call buying suggests way way too much optimism. I got off the subject of Max Pain but the final leg down, is when Pain is gonn fail. I am positive it failed in August/September, but I do not know how light things were then. When bears are too chicken to buy puts, and when bulls keep buying calls, and when options are light enough so da boys have little hedging to do, it just all ties together. That said I do not discount a rally to max pain if we get any little bit of good news at all. M