Hi Jay, I still remember the delicious feeling of abandonment and lost, and of course, thanks to ORCL database software residing somewhere in the SI omninet, I remember the lessons:
Message 13060900
March 6th, 2000
The boat definitely is no longer anchored in the sunny cove. The storm is on full and the pump is working. The ration just got soaked.
Beside the sensation of having just been punched in the stomach, how do we collectively feel? The coke can (forget the champagne bottle) is opened but not drank from. The pizza is sliced but not munched on. The TV is on, but not watched. The computer is buzzing, but Unreal Tournament is not activated. The sun is shining and the air warm, the campus green is populated with couples made for each other for ever, and we mope across the grass thinking about absolutely nothing.
Uhm, feels like we are in love sick. It feels exactly like a few weeks back, except in a parallel universe where anti-matter makes up everything.
Yup, the girl just stormed off in her Fiat roadster, and we are sucking in copious amount of dust.
We can deny the fact that we have lost net worth as the price, value, cost of Softbank whips from 200k to its current level. The recovery of loss, if not via Softbank, would take many lucky or thoughtful bets. Denial would be foolish, and we are not foolish.
We can run away from the position like a kid. That would be mindless and the eventual regret of having sold as opposed to having held or bought more would feel like the time when we thought we lost our very first girlfriend the very first time, and then saw her at the neighborhood bar with ?whatshisface?. I am nostalgic, but not punishing-ly so, only to the extent of wanting a Jaguar E-type.
We can collectively swamp the Nikko website. That would be vengeful and energy not well spent. Further more, Nikko can not be the actual trigger, as two months ago Merrill had a report out downgrading 9984 as well, sighting rapid rising price as a reason, and placing target price at Y86k (the stock was than at 100k, heading to 134, the 200k). I did not bother to sight the report as there seems not well reasoned. The target prices are all over the map right now.
History did not end yesterday, for gold or for the Internet.
So, what can we do?
(1) Stop watching the tape and, instead, do some cool outdoor (or indoor, for that matter) stuff, end each day in total physical exhaustion.
(2) For good measure, write the position down to zero (ouch. yup, and how does it feel?). Enjoy the feeling of loss while it lasts. Enjoy the feeling of being poorer, and pretend that the party ends here and now, for good. Use this opportunity to reflect on what matters to ourselves.
Message 13964522
June 28th, 2000
I felt not well about my RMBS. I miscalculated and left major dollars on the table. But, just another trade.
The 12 Trading Axioms
1. On Risk, if you are not worried, you are not risking enough; always play for meaningful stakes and resist the allure of diversification;
2. On greed, always take your profit too soon; decide in advance what gain you want and when you get it, get out;
3. On hope, when the ship starts to sink, don't pray, jump; accept small losses cheerfully and as a fact of life; expect to experience several while awaiting a larger gain;
4. On forecasts, human behavior can not be predicted; distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
5 through 12 for later. We here on 9984 thread violated #2 and #4. What fun.
On Hutchison, solid company, but will not go boom boom like CHL if it is wireless you are interested in. |
