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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/4/2002 11:22:22 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 99280

Who's shy. Ron, how many fricken times do I have to tell you, most I know, rode those techs to the moon, and then we crashed them. We were way long that stuff. It was new, it was hype, it was the explosion of internet trading, of internet commerce, of internet chat, of internet B to B, of higher speed internet. It was a bubble, it was a once in a lifetime deal, it was the roaring 90's. It ain't coming back. Using my same logic, I wouldn't have done a thing differently back then.

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/4/2002 11:22:50 PM
From: SBHX	Respond to of 99280

Ron, 98 and 99 --- the good times, I remember them well. How about this : buy and continue to buy knowing that it will blow up at any time, a stop loss (mental or o/w) to preserve capital. In 2000, 2001, (even maybe 2002), attempt to go back in with stop loss several times as I get my fingers burned. After a while, one gets sick of continuous charred fingers and figures out maybe it's time to do something else. Once in a while, the insanity (and nostalgia) takes over and I attempt to go long on individual stocks, but the long positions mostly end rather badly for me. It could be worse. SbH

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/4/2002 11:35:47 PM
From: Jeff	Respond to of 99280

ron.... that was a bull market...height of speculation....wall street and company's were gods and nothing mattered....the bubble was being fed..... this is now a bear market.....full of distrust...wall street and companies are now proven liars and crooks....folks are sick of all the crap and money lost and realize they were swindled.....the ballon is now leaking more air daily as more crooks are uncovered.... next year you will be making a post like this.... now back in 1996 when nasdaq was 1100...was it a good buy...well than why isn't it a good buy today at 1100.. its over ron....

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/4/2002 11:40:24 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 99280

Ron, let me add, fall of 98, rates were cut 3 times within like 6 weeks, the seeds were already planted for the internet explosion, and the rate cuts and extra liquidity just fueled the fire. Fall of 99, Y2K uncertainty, again, the liquidity was pumped, more fuel for the fire. And, Houston, we have lift off. But, one only has to look at the A/D line to see what was really going on. Most Nasdaq stocks were declining, only those those that were related to the internet, exploded, IMO. Compound that, with internet IPO's flooding the marketplace, and Bingo, Nasdaq breaks over 5000. ;-)

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/5/2002 12:16:11 AM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 99280

Hey Ron, I even held internet stocks over Y2K, I was long, way long, can you believe it?? Ha ha ha. I was holding some PCNTF too over Y2K, and Steve Harmon came out and called it one of his picks for 2000, it gappo'd big, and I ran. There were many times too when I was short, and got squeezed out, but I was mostly long. The day that went down in history though, was the day after Thanksgiving, 1998. I think ONSL went from 50 to 100, BAMM like 20 to 50, on and on and on, you could practically just throw darts, and make money. Those days are over.

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/5/2002 12:20:22 AM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Here's BAMM, day before and after Thanksgiving, 1998, 4.50 to 44.50, Ha ha ha, someone should look all these up just for fun. chart.yahoo.com

To: Ron Dior who wrote (61849)	5/5/2002 1:01:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Nas 2800 when stock valuations were 50 to 100 times higher You are just tracking valuations. Thoise companies actually had growth then. Now they were insanely overvalued but the GROWTH IS GONE. On a PE basis (with ZERO chance of growth returning to the buildup hype we saw) these stocks are still extremely expensive. By watching valuations you might have been buying JNPR at 100 on the basis that it is a good compant at a 50% discount. Then it was a better deal at a 80% discount. 90% is it a good deal? WOW look at JNPR available at $9 when it was over $200. WTF does price have to do with anything. If price is your metric buy some PALM like some did at $5. Add more at $ 4, add more at $3, and wow add some more at $2.50 or whereever it is. The plain fact of the matter is: 1) by any REASONABLE valuation metric BRCD EMLX QLGC AMAT KLAC NTAP CSCO JNPR are way over-valued. 2) PEs are thru the roof, and growth is not there. These companies produce commodities and the competition is so intense (with so little protit) that margins as well as pricing powere have collapsed. 3) Now you have CSCO entering some of these spaces that it was not in, the outcome of which is likely to be more pricing pressure and fewer profits. 4) If you want to buy based on how far something has fallen, might I suggest INSP? How about ENE at .30 (oops is that ZERO now). 5) What does the correct answer in 1998 based on price have to do with the correct action now at the same price. In light of the fact that growth is gone, how about NOTHING. BRCD EMLX MU CSCO AMAT KLAC VRTS JNPR etc etc etc are ALL going to take out Spet bottoms IMHO. Now, could they be good buys here for a bounce? Who knows. I doubt it. 3 years from now I doubt many of those stocks will be higher than they are today, and if they are I doubt it will be by a huge %. You have placed your bet and I have placed mine. If I buy these stocks, and I might, it will only be in the full knowlege that they are all over-hyped POS stocks (at these PE's), with little to no earnings and little chance for great earnings for a long period of time. I might buy them because more than likely there will be "another train leaving the station" for more LTBHers to hop on and get smoked. I would buy hoping to exit the trap door before the train plunges again into the next abyss down. I fail to understand how someone can see the market drop day in and day out, with monthly lower lows being set, with no bottom retest in place, and every chance we take out thos bottoms and plunge to new lows. BTW- I ask again a question you failed to answer the last time. What is your exit point? What will it take for you to admit you were wrong? Maz 1300, naz 1200, naz 1000, naz 800 Answer that. We answered you. M