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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_K who wrote (16800)	5/5/2002 7:09:28 PM
From: Susan G	Respond to of 26752

Mimimum, there is a really close target at NDX 1179-80, the top of the consolidation/breakout area from the first week of October. If the futures open up and Friday's low holds, I wouldn't be surprised if their was a bounce of a day or two off that area. The next support I see except the September spike low, which isn't support at all(!) is the bottom of the small consolidation area/trading range from the first week of October around NDX 1130-1140. One more day of downside could get us there. I guess using classic TA rules, the maximum target would be about 400 points, the height of the triangle (!) That would be NDX 900 area... The last one went further than 400 pts, but was 9/11 induced... I think there will be a few more rally attempts at 1697-1700 COMPX / 1329-30 NDX in the next few weeks before the next leg down, maybe even a break back inside the triangle as a complete fakeout, but my eventual downside target is the September lows or lower. There is so much resistance now all the way up, And with the daily 20EMAs RIGHT at the broken trendlines of that triangle at 1313 NDX, traders are going to be waiting there to sell...especially futures traders who love grail sales at the daily EMA <g> The NDX is far ahead of the COMPX on the downside, it's already taken out the October consolidation area around 1225-50, which I thought would hold. That area has not been tested yet on the COMPX. So what I see next stop down on the NDX is the 1135-1140 area, the bottom of the trading range from the first October breakout from the lows. If 1135 does not hold, and the Sept lows are taken out, I think the 1060 are would hold, there is support there from a spike low in 1998 and also some support from 1997. Hard to believe this index is now trading at 1997-98 levels again... Pretty radical targets, but I just cannot see any catalyst to move this index to the upside and not retest the lows in the next few months. I do think it's going to be more of the same slow drip down as there is no fear and no capitulation yet. With plenty of vicious short covering rallies to the upside which give hope and then fail. Capitulation will probably not occur until those September lows are broken and it hits the media. And you know that will be the bottom...what's scary is on the NDX, it's only a little over 100 pts away.