From Briefing.com: Close Dow -198.59 at 9808.04, S&P -21.20 at 1052.23, Nasdaq -34.55 at 1578.48: Although entering the week with a weaker bias intact, the market had a few positives in pre-market trade that allowed some buy side interest to develop in early session dealings. Merrill Lynch issued some favorable comments on the semi sector; indicated that April 2002 would have been a great time to buy semi stocks as the industry's recovery becomes increasingly apparent; based on the themes of portability, market share gain, and pricing power. Banc of America suggested ESRX +13.2%, which was hit hard last week, is not a target of an investigation. Others in the group also benefited (ADVP +4.3%, CMX +6.6%). UBS Warburg issued bullish comments on paper stocks; firm believes that paper markets are gaining some momentum and that the recovery is starting to take hold; also, paper stocks historically outperform when paper prices increase relative to the producer price index; upgraded BCC (+1.3%), IP (unch), WY (+1.7%), and TIN (+1.3%). The weekend record box office receipts for the Spider-Man movie triggered a solid move in Marvel Enterprises (MVL +0.5%). Unfortunately, there was relatively little else that elicited a bullish reaction from investors by the end of the session with even the semiconductor sector, which had bucked the market bias much of the day, slumping in later trade. No change is expected from the Fed tomorrow, as the trigger for the eventual tightening remains tied to corporate investment, but given the current cautious environment and the now well established downtrend, buyers have little incentive to move off the sidelines. The Nasdaq has declined 12 out of the last 14 sessions and slumping as much as 14%. During this same period the Dow declined roughly 5% while the S&P 500 fell approximately 7%. Market volume was moderate with market internals firmly in the bearish camp. DOT -4.9%, SOX -1.4%, XOI -2.5%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1038/2130, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1178/2373
3:22PM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Index has edged under support at 1600, bringing it once again down to the 1500's. From current levels, look for additional support at 1592 with what looks like a more solid floor in the area of 1580/1583. If those should fail, start looking towards 1570 and 1555. To the upside, watch for initial resistance at 1600/1605 followed by additional overhead at 1611/1614.
3:19PM Nasdaq break of 1600 triggers selling across the markets (COMPX) 1594.95 -18.08:
2:38PM Sun Microsystems: comments on bond/equity divergence by TWP (SUNW) 6.04 -0.73: -- Update -- Thomas Weisel notes that while Sun common shares have significantly underperformed the shares of comparable co's over the last 6 months, Sun debt is trading above par value and in line with similar corporate debt securities; this divergence may suggest several possibilities, including the notion that bondholders believe there is little risk to either principal or interest payments, and implying that the bond holder view of the longer term outlook for the co may be better than that currently perceived by equity holders; it also suggests there is an inefficiency in the pricing of the bonds relative to the equity. Reiterates Buy rating, price target is $16.
2:18PM Market Volume : Total volume traded is solid again today though off the heavy levels of last week. The Nasdaq has already cleared the 1.2 billion share mark and is on pace to push 1.8 billion for the day. NYSE volume is also strong with 700 million total shares traded to this point in the session.
1:19PM IBM Intraday (IBM) 80.57 -1.21: -- Update -- -- Technical -- Stock weighing on the Dow as it continues to make new intraday lows. Note that volume on IBM is about even with its daily average. Has found very modest intraday support at 80.50 which should be followed up by round number support at 80.00. To the upside, watch for initial overhead at 80.70 followed by additional resistance at 81.00.
12:22AM QLogic Intraday (QLGC) 42.83 +1.27: -- Technical -- Trading towards its best levels of the session, QLGC has edged above modest overhead at 42.75. From current levels, look for additional resistance at 43.00 followed by overhead at 43.40 and 43.75. The favorable intraday tone would be placed in question on a break below very near-term support at 42.55.
11:49AM KLA-Tencor Intraday (KLAC) 54.04 +1.26: -- Technical -- Stock has edged above resistance at 54.00 towards its best levels of the day. Look for additional resistance at 54.45 followed by more notable overhead at 55.00. Note that the favorable intraday tone would deteriorate on a break below very near-term support at 53.85.
11:18AM Semiconductor Index Intraday : -- Technical -- SOX demonstrating relative strength, trading towards its best levels of the session. Currently trading at 489, look for initial resistance at 500 followed by additional overhead at 514/516. To the downside, watch for modest support at 485 followed by an additional floor at 478/480.
9:24AM JP Morgan cuts estimates for Intel, AMD, Nvidia : JP Morgan lowers Q2 and 2002 PC CPU shipment forecasts; firm sees signs that new product cycles such as the INTC 845G chipset will likely fail to serve as a strong demand stimulant, and that a turn-around in the PC mkt would have to hinge upon price elasticity; cuts INTC CY02 rev/EPS ests to $28.4 bln/$0.67 from $28.7 bln/$0.69, cuts AMD CY02 ests to $3.57 bln/($0.05) from $3.62 bln/($0.02), and cuts NVDA FY03 ests to $2.3 bln/$1.80 from $2.4 bln/$1.88; sees no near-term catalyst for shares of INTC, AMD, and NVDA, but remains bullish on other PC-related names such as ICST and MRVL.
8:55AM ASML Holding receives EUR 200 mln order (ASML) 21.03: Inks sales agreement with a leading foundry based in Asia to supply lithography equipment. The value of the deal is over EUR 200 million. Delivery will occur in 2002.
8:46AM Soundview upgrades Motorola, downgrades Nokia 14.89: We are hearing from sources that Soundview advocates a shift out of NOK and into MOT; firm believes MOT is set to gain share, is increasingly confident in MOT's superior earnings power over NOK, and sees potential for MOT's margins to improve while NOK's handset margins are vulnerable. Upgrades MOT to STRONG BUY from Buy and raises FY02 rev/EPS ests to $27.868 bln/$0.04 from $27.697 bln/$0.03 and FY03 to $31.577 bln/$0.44 from $30.923 bln/$0.30. Downgrades NOK to BUY from Strong Buy, and cuts FY02 rev/EPS est to $31.468 bln/$0.72 from $32.311 bln/$0.75 and FY03 to $32.948 bln/$0.78 from $37.217 bln/$0.89.
8:35AM Positive comments on semis by Merrill Lynch : Merrill Lynch believes that the past two weeks represent the biggest decoupling of industry fundamentals and stock prices since April of 2001, and that April 2002 would have been a great time to buy semi stocks as the industry's recovery becomes increasingly apparent; based on the themes of portability, market share gain, and pricing power, firm would be buying shares of MCHP, MRVL, ADI, MXIM, and INTC.
2:36PM Oracle Corp (ORCL) 8.40 -0.03: Soundview defends ORCL and reiterates their confidence in the co's turnaround; stock is down close to 50% over the past 3 months. Firm believes that the effect of the poor IT spending environment is complicated by ORCL's role as a business partner impacting its overall competitive position and the growth prospects of its apps business. Soundview rejects the notion that ORCL is broken and that the co is not capable of sustaining significantly faster growth than the broader economy; stresses the stock is discounting the prospective bad news ... ORCL presents tomorrow at JP Morgan's Tech Conf at 11:00 AM EST.
12:57PM Lam Research (LRCX) 24.13 +0.28: In intraday note, Prudential reiterates Buy rating and price target of $37 as recent meeting with management, along with firm's field checks, indicate that LRCX could be improving its competitive positioning. In particular, firm believes company has been gaining share in oxide etch, as well as seeing improvements with its CMP tool uptime, which could be a positive for LRCX. Firm believes June quarter is tracking well and that guidance of June quarter orders up 39% qtr/qtr is very doable.
11:22AM Nokia (NOK) 15.30 -0.13: SoundView Technology downgraded to BUY from Strong Buy as firm believes Nokia's recent downward revision to its FY02 handset numbers indicate TDMA share losses to Sony Ericsson and Motorola. Firm believes NOK's market share will fall to 33% during 2002 from 37%, and is advocating a shift out of NOK and into Motorola (upgrading MOT to Strong Buy from Buy), believing MOT is set to gain share. Also, AG Edwards downgraded Nokia to BUY from Strong Buy rating with price target of $17 as infrastructure OEM 2H visibility is not improving. Firm notes that, NOK should continue to outperform the industry; longer term wireless hardware market should prosper as capacity constrained carriers and new technologies will produce an industry rebound; firm would still build positions in NOK, but visibility of a move upward is not yet in place... NOK trading down 0.8%.
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