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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kendall harmon who wrote (16804)5/5/2002 6:15:20 PM
From: Susan G  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26752
 
Small Caps, anything looking this good in a market that's breaking down on all the other indexes needs to be watched carefully...

The media is finally catching on to that, and in fact overdoing the pumping of this sector recently IMO...danger signs are flashing with all the recent attention.

On cnbc Friday evening, John Bollinger said the small cap move has a ways more to go. And he was congratulated for calling it two years ago.

And MSN this weekend, has a big story on it.

money.msn.com

Have also heard at least a dozen fund managers on tv in the past two weeks call them as a buy with much more room to move up.

Unfortunately, when it starts showing up in the mainstream media so much and everyone is looking for the same thing, the move is usually largely over. And with all the money that rotated out of big caps, if this massive sector rotation keeps up, it's going to be the recent strong sectors where the big profit taking hits. I saw it in some of the small caps I watch this week, when breakdown alerts started going off out of nowhere. And this comes after most of those stocks hit new 52 week highs in the past few weeks....

I do think that smaller companies may lead us out of the recession, but if everyone piles in at once, there is going to be a small cap bubble soon <g>

Taking a quick look at the RUT.X and the SML.X, the indexes are about to do a test of top - a test of the April highs on the daily chart.

mywebpages.comcast.net

mywebpages.comcast.net

If these tests of top fail, it will create double tops on both indexes. Both dailies right now have rising wedges targeting these exact test resistance areas so when the time comes that the SML.X nears 258.23 (It's at 256.39) and the RUT.X nears 522.96, they should be watched carefully. The RUT.X also has a test of top and a big resistance area straight ahead at 523.79 on the monthly chart. It has not broken over that area since 2000. SML also closed with a doji on the daily, which can indicate a reversal - up or down! The important test on the SML.X is coming up very soon - this week for sure.

As far as warnings of breakdowns go, If the RUT breaks 500 and the SML breaks 250, they are in trouble so you might want to set index alerts.

So that area is going to be TOUGH and everyone will be watching, since these sectors are the only thing holding this market up right now!



To: kendall harmon who wrote (16804)5/5/2002 6:26:49 PM
From: Susan G  Respond to of 26752
 
The media is finally catching on to that, on cnbc Friday evening, John Bollinger said the small cap move has a ways more to go. And he was congratulated for calling it two years ago.

And MSN this weekend, has a big story on it. Have also heard at least a dozen fund managers on tv this week call them as a buy with much more room to move up.

Unfortunately, when it starts showing up in the mainstream media so much and everyone is looking for the same thing, the move is usually largely over. And with all the money that rotated out of big caps, if this massive sector rotation keeps up, it's going to be the recent strong sectors where the big profit taking hits. I saw it in some of the small caps I watch this week, when breakdown alerts started going off out of nowhere. And this comes after most of those stocks hit new 52 week highs in the past few weeks....

Taking a quick look at the RUT.X and the SML.X, the indexes are about to do a test of top - a test of the April highs on the daily chart.

mywebpages.comcast.net

mywebpages.comcast.net

If these tests of top fail, it will create double tops on both indexes. Both dailies right now have rising wedges targeting these exact test resistance areas so when the time comes that the SML.X nears 258.23 (It's at 256.39) and the RUT.X nears 522.96, they should be watched carefully. The RUT.X also has a test of top and a big resistance area straight ahead at 523.79 on the monthly chart. It has not broken over that area since 2000. SML also closed with a doji on the daily, which can indicate a reversal - up or down! The important test on the SML.X is coming up very soon - this week for sure.

As far as warnings of breakdowns go, If the RUT breaks 500 and the SML breaks 250, they are in trouble so you might want to set index alerts.

So that area is going to be TOUGH and everyone will be watching, since these sectors are the only thing holding this market up right now!



To: kendall harmon who wrote (16804)5/5/2002 9:38:48 PM
From: Susan G  Respond to of 26752
 
Excellent technical article from Barron's this weekend...

Trend or Foe?

A technician's not-so-bullish analysis of the recent market rally

By MICHAEL KAHN

Ask economists or TV journalists why the stock market rallied last Tuesday and they'll no doubt cite the April
consumer-confidence report, which was better than expected.

After all, it indicated that the consumer -- the driving force behind the economy for many years -- is still ready to spend, spend, spend.

Ask technical analysts the same question, and they'll say that the market simply was oversold and that stocks bounced up after hitting major support levels.

The technical dynamics at play here are compelling, but uncomplicated.

Oversold? That really just means that the market has fallen very quickly -- perhaps unjustifiably so -- giving nimble short-selling bears a chance to rack up nice paper profits. When they cash them in by closing out those positions, their selling pressure eases and prices tend to go up. Supply down, demand up.

Support? A support level is usually a price at which bulls who missed the recent rally feel comfortable jumping in.

It represents their second chance to buy at that old price because they think that the market once again is cheap. And they're not going to miss out this time!

On Monday, the Standard & Poor's 500 (Chart 1) closed within a key support zone, defined by the bottoms of the February (1074) and the October (1054) trading ranges.

The combination of hitting this support zone and a rapid stock-market slide -- there had been string of seven losses in eight days -- was too compelling for traders to overlook. All that was needed to produce a rally was a spark, and that was provided by the consumer-confidence report. So the report didn't cause the rally; it just gave the rally its blessing.

A similar condition existed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

But because the trend in the Dow was much stronger and longer than the S&P's, the October and February trading ranges were at different levels. Thus, the Dow's condition is best defined by a trend channel, as shown on Chart 2. (A trend channel resembles a trading range on an angle, and it, too, shows support and resistance levels.)

Since peaking in March, the Dow established a short-term downtrend, and the pace of that decline has accelerated over the past two weeks.

Prices touched support levels, and Dow bulls had a chance to nibble. Dow bears took their profits by covering their short positions. To do this, they had to buy stock, increasing demand for various shares and helping to give the market a nice rally.

But the bulls shouldn't become too heartened, as Friday's market suggested. Nothing has really changed in terms of the Dow's short-term trend. The trend channel was not broken and investors probably still have little to cheer about.

Keep in mind that just because an index hits a support level, this doesn't mean that the next move is up. Support is nothing more than a price at which buyers start to get more active. To get an idea of what lies ahead, it's important to watch how the market reacts now. Will it bounce up immediately and rally? Will it hover around its closest support level? Or will it plunge through the support level toward new lows?

Strong markets don't remain at a support level for long. They seldom give the weaker buyers, those that are more skeptical, a chance to buy. Instead, they move up fairly quickly. Only the strong players, those with great bullish conviction, are fast enough to buy at the support level.

The Nasdaq Composite (Chart 3), the most battered of the major indexes, tells a tale similar to those of the S&P and the Dow. While its trading range in October wasn't as well-defined as those of the other two, it still found support around 1650.

The bottom line here is that the three major indexes all have hit levels recently at which short-term forces overwhelmed the downtrend. We now have to see whether the trend reasserts itself. If the market breaks below these support levels, investors (except those who are shorting the market) will be in trouble.

Even favorable economic reports -- unless they are wildly bullish -- won't be able to stop the slide if equities are destined to revisit their September lows.

There is one big positive. This market is not one unified tide that is on the brink of turning. There are undercurrents running in several sectors where solid bull markets remain firmly in place.

For example, small-cap stocks, of both the growth and value types, have been in an uninterrupted uptrend since the market bottomed on Sept. 21, following the terrorist attacks, and that has pushed the S&P 600 small-cap index solidly into record-high territory (Chart 4).

Unfortunately, this sector now appears to be overbought.

The rally has gotten to a point that soon will prompt bulls to take money off the table. And this simple shift in the supply/demand equation could push down the small-cap group.

Other industries whose shares have enjoyed big jumps since September include gaming companies, home builders, gold miners and health-maintenance organizations. How will you know if any of these are topping out?

Watch the leaders. If the best stocks in these groups falter, then the lesser ones will have trouble, too. This is particularly true among the HMOs (Chart 5). They've displayed a parabolic rise over the past seven months, one that might have been capped by the recent announcement that Anthem is merging with Trigon Healthcare.

In the homebuilding sector, the gains have been spectacular across the board. One of the best of the best has been KB Home, more than doubling from its September low. Along the way, corrections were shallow and advances were strong. But even this top performer has begun to look a bit extended and investors should be on the lookout for signs of a top. If this leader stumbles, the followers may fare worse.

In the leisure sector, Starwood Hotels, owner of the Sheraton brand, among others, has also more than doubled from its September low, but it stalled last month. The trendline that defined its rally has been broken to the downside and chart watchers would say it is in a potential topping pattern. Since it is still very close to its 52-week high, it is hard to say it is in a bearish trend just yet. But it is one stock that must be monitored.

The overall picture: It's still a stockpicker's market.

But be warned: The indexes are on the brink and need more than a small bounce to save them.



To: kendall harmon who wrote (16804)5/5/2002 10:10:47 PM
From: Susan G  Respond to of 26752
 
For Small Banks, It's a Wonderful Life

They're gaining on the biggies with old-fashioned service

Michael Berk, chief executive of H&S Yacht Sales in San Diego, has had more bankers than Southern California has sunny days. Each time his bank merged with another, he says, service got worse. "The big joke was if we wanted to find out something about our accounts, it was, `Call the 800 number in Fargo,"' says Berk, whose company sells $60 million in luxury boats a year. Last month, after his big bank changed his contact person for the sixth time in four months, he moved all his business to Beverly Hills (Calif.)-based City National Bank, which has just $10 billion in assets. In four days, Berk got the line of credit he had waited three months for at his old bank. City National reps even call Berk regularly to check in on him.

Small banks are back on the map. A few years ago, they seemed headed for extinction as retail banks consolidated into a few national players, then expanded into everything from insurance to investment banking. Hell-bent on cutting costs, the megabanks closed tens of thousands of branches, raised account minimums, and slapped on ATM fees. It was a big miscalculation. "Retail has been an undervalued business," says Gordon J. Goetzmann, managing vice-president at First Manhattan Consulting Group, which specializes in financial services. "Big banks just don't get it."

Scorned customers have become a ripe market for community banks. At 48-year-old City National, profits and loan growth are outpacing those of giants like Bank of America (BAC ) and Wells Fargo (WFC ). Small banks specialize in the royal treatment. Some serve Starbucks coffee. Others offer free baby-sitting and investment advice. And they all cater to markets that big banks have given short shrift, including small businesses, minorities, and rural areas. "The big guys abandoned small towns where their roots don't run deep, and we've taken the market," says J.W. Davis, president of 15-branch MountainBank Financial Corp. His five-year-old bank is now No. 2 in its home county of Henderson, N.C., after Raleigh-based First Citizens Bank, and ahead of $326 billion Wachovia Corp. (WB )

The battle isn't just for fringe markets. Vernon W. Hill, chairman of Commerce Bancorp Inc. in Cherry Hill, N.J., is moving into New York, home turf of the nation's largest players--Citigroup (C ) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM ). Thousands flocked to the opening of Commerce's Midtown Manhattan branch last fall for free sandwiches, shoe shines, and caricatures. Lured by free checking, no minimum balances, extended hours, and even free toasters, customers deposited $1 million in the first week. The bank's assets grew 40%, to $12.5 billion, in the first quarter of 2002, compared with a year ago. This year, it plans to open 40 branches in the Northeast.

The irony is that the little guys are making money doing what their bigger rivals said wasn't profitable. Small-bank profits have grown at 11.8% annually for the past five years, vs. 8.5% for the big players, says analyst Anthony R. Davis at Ryan Beck & Co., a boutique investment bank. "They generate higher returns by taking less risks," he says. And deposits at smaller banks have grown by 5% a year since the mid-1990s, while growth at large banks has been flat, says First Manhattan's Goetzmann.

Investors have sat up and taken notice. The prices of some small-bank stocks are hovering around 52-week highs they hit recently: BSB Bancorp Inc. in Binghamton, N.Y., surged to $32.80 on Apr. 17, and United Commercial Bank, which targets San Francisco's Asian community, jumped to $38.58 on Apr. 12. "Small banks can make money in almost any environment," says John Lyons, president and bank stock portfolio manager for New York's Keefe Managers Inc.

Small banks have been mostly immune to the static economy. Unlike those of the big banks, their customers tend to be local businesses with less exposure to broad economic cycles. Besides, falling interest rates have cut the small banks' cost of funds, boosted their already higher margins, and fueled record mortgage refinancings. Even when interest rates rise, service fees for existing mortgages will continue to feed profits.

Some of the best small banks are thriving because many of their executives once worked at megabanks. They add tight financial management to the small banks' warm-and-fuzzy service. Joseph M. Grant, chairman of upstart Texas Capital Bank, was chief financial officer at Electronic Data Systems and CEO of Texas American Bancshares, the sixth-largest bank holding company in Texas during his tenure in the late 1980s. Others are importing different kinds of expertise. For example, Keefe helped Bay View Capital Corp. in San Mateo, Calif., hire Robert B. Goldstein, a veteran of small-bank turnarounds, as CEO last year. Goldstein has slashed Bay View's bad loans to $83 million from $800 million.

To be sure, small banks aren't just about altruism. "Most bankers who start new banks are building them up to sell," says Keefe's Lyons. "They do it because they expect to make a lot of money." What's more, the small fry aren't all hometown heroes. In January, for instance, regulators closed Miami's Hamilton Bank at a cost of as much as $500 million to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. because of bad Latin American loans and concealment of its books from the authorities. Others have taken heat for growing too fast. Sovereign Bank of Wyomissing, Pa., made "one of the riskiest moves in banking history," by going deep into debt to expand, says Keefe's Lyons. Its thinly capitalized holding company borrowed $1.4 billion to buy about 280 branches after the 1999 merger of Fleet Financial Group and BankBoston Corp. "We believed enough in the earnings prospects that we were willing to put on more debt," says Sovereign CFO Mark R. McCollom. Although the balance sheet is improving, some analysts say the bank is still on thin ice.

Big banks have started to notice that the business they once disdained is making money for others. So they're moving back to capture lost terrain. FleetBoston, which only a few years ago was determined to compete with the biggest, is selling its investment bank, Robertson Stephens Inc., and scaling back venture-capital investments to concentrate on retail banking and lending to midsize businesses. J.P. Morgan Chase, meanwhile, forecasts it will soon earn half its profits from retail customers, up from 40% now.

The attention to bread-and-butter customers is the same formula that, along with shrewd acquisitions, propelled Seattle's tiny Washington Mutual Inc. to a $275 billion national bank in a decade. Khaki-clad tellers still roam the floor asking customers what they need. The answer, obviously, has been more TLC, and less ATM.

By Mara Der Hovanesian and Heather Timmons in New York, with Chris Palmeri in Los Angeles

businessweek.com@@bi0YuWQQR2szrQwA/premium/content/02_18/b3781077.htm?$se



To: kendall harmon who wrote (16804)5/6/2002 9:17:00 AM
From: Susan G  Respond to of 26752
 
HELE missed???

Wow. I think that's the first quarter in years they have not significantly beat.