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To: rkral who wrote (59274)	5/5/2002 9:44:20 PM
From: Rock_nj	Respond to of 77400

Thanks for the info Ron. I came up with my 1,600 longterm trend number the old fasion way. I just used a ruler on a chart going back to 1971 to best estimate where the longterm trend puts the NASDAQ in May, 2002. I came up with 1,600. But, I like your numbers a lot better. If I understand you correctly, the mean trendline in your charting analysis puts the NAZ at 2,295 now? That's great! It means we're greatly oversold here and ready to bounce sometime this year. You wouldn't believe how many people are talking about a NAZ below 1,000 before this market shakeout ends. This people are perfectly serious about their prediction. There are many people out there in SI land making such dire predictions, which I think are utter nonsense, since we didn't even go much below 1,400 when the market reopened after 9/11 and a recession was looming, and since the longterm trend doesn't support such a number in 2002.

To: rkral who wrote (59274)	5/5/2002 10:15:46 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Sorry guys, let me clarify. I was talking about mean PEs for the stocks within each of these indices, not the mean of the indices themselves.