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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milesofstyles who wrote (16828)	5/8/2002 11:30:36 PM
From: milesofstyles	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26752

commentary has been updated for may 8 chartwerx.com this was sunday's update, if you want to follow the two update for may 5, 2002 last week we mentioned some improvement to weakening trend indicators, today we'll adjust that to a neutral level as its worked off some of the weaker signs. the top of the trendline area has moved down to 895 with an extension of it to the 902 area. a move into this area would be considered a positive for this index. the negative side again starts taking effect should this index move below 876. oscillators have also improved from a oversold stance to currently neutral positioning as well. btk, divergences noted in the last commentary have not yet assisted this index as a positive situation to accomodate any advance as of yet, we're still in the vicinity of the september lows, and we'll watch the low 380s pulled from the weekly chart should this index keel over completely. last week we noted the potential for moving average sweeps to limit the upside move on the dj65, currently this is still in progress. we've noted the 2993 apex coming up tomorrow/tuesday. we did get our indicator turns as mentioned. the fear here is that these indicators roll over on the lower end of the midpoints. this would result in this index testing the low 2880s again, with the next support in the 2850s. the compq has finally failed to hold its fibonacci level as illustrated by the green horizontal line on the chart. no real move was even generated to alleviate oversold conditions and in my view the index still remains as such. as one indication of a threshold area, this index since 2000 has not spent alot of time below 30 in most cases on the rsi14. outside of sept 11, this index has traded down a max of 3 days in each previous instance below 30. 22.71 and 24.50 were achieved on those downdrafts. sept 11 registered 15.44 on the dow jones, we can watch the january support line and green horizontal fib as the next downside negative, and still monitor the march downtrendline as the next possible positive for this index, general areas 10100 and to the downside, initially 9963 as the fib value. using those two lines, the apex is slated for midweek. the ndx has also failed to generate any kind of positive activity from oversold conditions. intraday 1 and 2 illustrate the daily rsi threshold in the 27 area over the past two years, and a line generated by the bull market on the weekly which i call "cardwell's low end bullish threshold", something i'll cover more in depth another time. previously mentioned thresholds on the daily still remain in tact as well, but are approaching again. friday's activity took out an important fibonacci support in the 1220s as illustrated by our dark blue horizontal on the chart. not much to add to the russell 2000, looking for > 514 to test the local highs and high end of the wedge, while < 497 would be the first negative followed by the next retest of the low end of the wedge. our horizontal supports on the sox were plowed thru on friday. in oct 2000 this index broke 30 on the rsi and traded down for 3 days, only other time its happened in the last two years was sept 11. its been called to my attention that the sox has a point and figure support as well in the 460 area currently unverified and will look into. the low end of the wedge is approaching here. on a 20 box, the loss of 500 was a double bottom breakdown. the white line and the two below that are old lines from previous draw points. the spx tested our green fib level as mentioned last week. no punch through has to be viewed negatively until it does, if it does. we'll stick with 1103/1110 as topside resistance and downside supports again at 1057 and 1030 the transports have yet to breach any of our mentioned upside resistances, specifically 2767, 2787, 2816. to the downside 2695 may be the first negative and would likely cause an indicator rollover setup below mid ranges, then we've got the 200sma illustrated as the dark purple line and fib support about 25pts below that. the broker index could be setting up as a bearish formation right at the horizontal area it needs to stay above. i've added an orange dashed line indicating the low end of the form support. milesov