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To: John Stopforth who wrote (79563)5/6/2002 2:51:56 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
Re: U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 5.8 percent in the first quarter, its fastest pace in more than two years.

Is it just me or does the 5.8% annual growth rate reported
in the first quarter seem a bit high? Are those numbers subject to revision?


I suspect you are right. I think it will be like the employment figures for March. At the time of the report on the first Friday in April, employment was said to be up in March. However, with the release of the April numbers last week, the March figures were revised downward to a loss.

From what I've seen on the stock market and from the news media I don't see that rapid a growth. Maybe in the housing market but definitely not in the high tech industry.

The way this game works is that certain sector groups are in favor at any given time during a recession and its recovery. Tech stocks are considered cyclicals and now are out of favor. They are not showing good future earnings growth and so they do not hold any interest for the big investors right now. Its the retail investor and a few funds that are primarily buying tech stocks. The only tech stocks that are moving at all are those that are small caps and are in certain specialty niches like GNSS and flat panels.

The stocks that are in favor right now are in the oil, basic materials, defense, retail, consumer cyclicals, restaurants etc sectors. These stocks are ramping and its possible to make money with them.....not like the money made in tech in the late nineties...but still decent money. Tech is good only for trading swings but even with that, its still tough.

ted

EDIT. If the Naz doesn't climb back above 1617 by the COB today, there is a good chance it will retest its lows of 1450 that it made right after 9/11.