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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (146954)	5/6/2002 9:37:53 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1576152

I'm so far out of tune with this #%&^ market I really should sell everything and buy some bonds or something. That would at least be in line with the position I've held for the last two years that the market was headed down. I am unloading stuff as something starts to falter. However, today most of my stocks were up [go figure!!]so I didn't sell too much....however, my SHOO position triggered its stop loss. Unfortunately, I think the turn is near.* Yeah, the Naz is definitely oversold and it could turn on a dime but I would not expect too strong a rally. I read today an article at TSC that I will post when I can get back into the site.....there seems to be a problem with their security fire walls right now. In any case, this guy was saying he thinks this is pretty much it for the summer.....that we will have some minor rallies but it will mostly be the summer doldrums and that there will be more capitulation until fall. He feels that stuff is now overvalued in all three indices........that even small caps have had their day. I tend to agree with him except re. the small caps.......I am finding some that still have room to run. However, I think the rest of his thesis is pretty accurate. Essentially, I think it will be just another period of mainly trading and/or only holding for short time spans. The Naz is screwed......there are too many broken charts. It will take years for them to mend. The action this fall I think will still be in the DOW mainly with some activity in the Naz. With tech, a lot depends on the return of IT spending. So far, I have yet to hear a good reason for why IT spending has not come back. I have to assume then that biz is still bad enough that its not worth upgrading.......which, of course, makes you question the quality of this recovery. Iff oil really loosens up AND the FED doesn't screw up AND my take on the unemployment # is correct(I think it's an anomaly due to the benefits increase) AND . So I'm really pretty fully invested again in my stock trading accounts. In these kind of market conditions, I think its always good to have some cash. But I didn't expect today.* I've been expecting it for two weeks now. Frankly, I hope tomorrow is the final phase of the worst of the capitulation. I am sick of this 'going no where' fast!!! What happened at 2:00 to cause it? As far as I know.....nada. The Naz broke through 1600 and after that there is no tech support until around 1500 which is near the Sept low. The retest will be around that area. First, though, we may bounce before going back down. After it does the retest of the Sept lows, it will come back up and then most likely go back down again to retest the new low. Sounds like fun, huh! That will probably take most of the summer. ted