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To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (18811)	5/6/2002 7:40:41 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Just as we suspected, not good ... stratfor.com Dutch Assassination: Europe's Latest Political Earthquake? 6 May 2002 Summary The May 6 assassination of Dutch right-wing politician Pim Fortuyn plays to the core issues of crime, immigration and security that National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen used to hijack the first round of the French presidential elections. The Dutch politician's death therefore may give new life to the issues of the extreme right, even after Le Pen's resounding defeat in France. The growing power of anti-immigration and nationalist messages could become the European Union's greatest political challenge in a decade. Analysis Pim Fortuyn, the Netherlands' most prominent right-wing politician, was assassinated May 6 outside a Dutch radio station in Hilversum, near Amsterdam. An unidentified gunman shot Fortuyn at least six times in the head, neck and chest before escaping. The assassination -- the first in the Netherlands since before World War II -- is the latest in a series of violent incidents that have fed a growing sense of insecurity in Europe. That insecurity has helped to bolster support for politicians like Fortuyn, who advocated tough anti-crime policies and sharp curbs on immigration, as well as more extreme-right politicians like National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, who lost the French presidential election May 5. Fortuyn's assassination could dramatically alter the shape of Dutch politics as well as European policies on immigration and foreign relations. Dutch voters could rally around Fortuyn's List party during parliamentary elections May 15, turning the country's government -- one of Europe's strongest voices of liberal tolerance -- into something decidedly more anti-immigrationist. Combined with Le Pen's surprising showing in the first round of French elections and the recent rise in violent crime throughout Europe, Fortuyn's assassination could help to legitimize the far-right platform in the minds of voters. Fortuyn's Unexpected Rise In March, Fortuyn and his followers unexpectedly grabbed one-third of the council seats in city elections in Rotterdam, the country's second-largest city, running on a tough-on-crime, anti-immigration platform that advocated closing the country's borders. The Netherlands is Europe's most densely populated state, and Fortuyn recently told the BBC that "we are already overcrowded, there's no more room and we must shut the borders." He also grabbed headlines with openly anti-Islamic statements. The BBC reports that he called Islam "a backward culture" and wrote a book titled "Against the Islamisation of Our Culture." About 2 million of the Netherlands' population of 16 million are not native Dutch; of those, about 800,000 are Muslims -- mainly from Turkey and Morocco. Fortuyn had hoped to build on his Rotterdam success with a strong showing in national parliamentary elections this month. His List party was expected to gain about 15 percent of the popular vote and around 20 of the 150 seats in parliament, and Fortuyn had expressed ambitions -- however unlikely -- of becoming prime minister. His political legacy is now unclear and much depends on the identity and motives of his assassin. If the killing proves to be politically motivated -- particularly if it was in response to his statements against Islam, although there currently is no evidence that it was -- Dutch voters could rush to support Fortuyn's policies. A strong showing could allow Fortuyn's followers to take, if not a leadership role in parliament, at least a place within the Dutch government from where they could wield greater influence over European policy. Le Pen Comparisons Similar stances on crime and immigration and the timing of the Dutch and French elections made comparisons between Fortuyn and Le Pen inevitable. Fortuyn decried such comparisons, but they will continue to be made, and his assassination could provide yet another boost to the policies of the extreme right. Fortuyn's assassination came one day after French President Jacques Chirac scored a record-breaking victory over Le Pen. As lopsided as the election was -- Chirac took 82.15 percent of the votes, compared with only 17.85 percent for Le Pen -- it was not a complete repudiation of Le Pen or of the extreme-right policies he espouses. Even though most of those who voted for former French prime minister Lionel Jospin switched their allegiance to Chirac in the second round, Le Pen actually succeeded in grabbing more than 1 million votes over his original 16.86 percent in the first round -- finishing the runoff with nearly 18 percent. This suggests that, at the very least, the National Front (NF) maintained its core support in the face of intense criticism. A poll in French daily Le Figaro found that 74 percent of Le Pen voters said crime was the issue most important to them. Sixty percent cited immigration as a critical issue. That is particularly true in working-class cities like Marseilles and in France's border provinces, where Le Pen made his strongest showing. In the seven easternmost provinces of the French Mediterranean coast, Le Pen polled between 22 and 28 percent and he scored more than 20 percent of the vote in numerous states along the border with Germany and the Benelux countries. The NF will count on a strong showing in many of these same provinces in two rounds of legislative elections in June to gain some seats in the National Assembly, where it currently has no representation. The NF clearly has been re-energized and will seek to exploit the split between the mainstream left and right to gain parliamentary representation. Based on voting patterns from the first round, the Financial Times estimates the NF could win 10 or more of the 577 seats. Even if Le Pen's party fails to gain a foothold in parliament, it will have succeeded in shifting the mainstream's agenda to its own advantage. Though they will vehemently deny it, mainstream parties from both sides of the French political spectrum will begin to adopt certain aspects of the Le Pen agenda. Chirac's conservatives will focus more intensely on crime, internal security and immigration, and both the right and left will recalibrate their support for European integration and Brussels-driven policy demands. Chirac already has said that public security will be the main focus of his new administration. He has pledged to create a new public security ministry that answers directly to him, and has promised to mount a strong defense of EU subsidies to French farmers, which Brussels sorely needs to reduce. Pledges to cut personal and corporate income taxes fly in the face of strict EU budget targets. Awakened by Le Pen, Chirac and others in France now recognize that these issues carry significant weight with voters. The same can be said across Europe. France and much of Europe must now reassess their approach to security, immigration and the very idea of the nation-state. Fortuyn's assassination in the Netherlands will raise the volume of that debate significantly. Although Fortuyn's anti-immigration rhetoric was softer than Le Pen's, his priorities of ending new immigration into the Netherlands and protecting the country's cultural and social values put him inherently at odds with some basic EU ideals. Namely, Fortuyn was out to protect the specific interests of the Dutch, and voters in recent elections clearly responded to that message. As the story of his assassination is told, that message is bound to reverberate -- and therein lies the true challenge for the future of the EU.