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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (35513)	5/7/2002 9:56:21 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 52237

BB, Thanks for the thoughts. Perhaps you are right- the ROW could do better than us- Temporarily however, IMHO. The 'Asian contagion' eventually affected the ROW, so call it conventional wisdom or, just repeating history- if the 'American Pyramid' tumbles, the ROW will get smashed by the falling rubble.. -this mornings foreign wrap up: >Asian stocks finished generally lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index closing down 2.0% on weakness in chip-related companies following the recent downdraft in US tech stocks. Export stocks also came under pressure on the heels of the recent weakness in the dollar relative to the yen. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa continued to express frustration about the recent strength in the yen, helping to put pressure on the Japanese currency against the dollar in early trading. < Got my Chuckie statements yesterday and I was shocked. Here we are in the midst of a 'terrifying bear market, and my accounts are actually positive for the YTD. How in the heck could that happen? I've got to get with the program and start buying more of those stocks that are falling. <g> Chuckie newsletter also had a nice pc. on stocks vs. bonds for the long haul. The article proved it's point, which was that stocks outperform bonds over the LT. It showed a chart of performance 1925 to present of large cap stocks, small, and bonds. There were only two 20 yr. periods where bonds outperformed stocks- consecutive years during the great depression era, 1928-1939. Since 1950- there have only been two 5 yr. periods where bonds outperformed stocks, and no 10 or 20 yr. periods. I do believe that the best comparison to the 90's is probably the 20's- so we may get another 10 or 20 yr. period of stock underperformance. That period would probably start in 1999 or 2000 (compare to '28 and '29). I didn't buy in either of those years. I bought in late 2001 and early 2002, and am itching to buy more. If the bears are right, then we will get 3 years of potential 20 yr. underperformance. That would be 'Worse than the Great Depression!' and I'm sorry, but I just don't see it happening. The soup lines just aren't long enuf, and the massive bank failures are just coming along too slow. It would take some huge shock to the system like Warren Buffet's Nuclear terrorist act to send us into that kind of tailspin. And Warren hasn't guaranteed that to happen for as much as 50 years. I'll be dead by then anyway. <g> The daily NDX has gone parabolic south here- the time to buy big approacheth.. Regards, TW