Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (39401)	5/7/2002 8:43:58 AM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

some interesting ideas on turn-arounds that are going UP: forbes.com larry

To: DanZ who wrote (39401)	5/7/2002 9:18:18 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

>>How much does a stock have to rally before you believe that a bottom is in?<<< I could ask, how much does a stock fall before you call a bottom? stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyyay[dc][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G What I am saying is calling a bottom on a stock while it is falling with a chart like ORCL is dangerous. It would be the same as calling the homebuilders at a top to start shorting them. I have been thinking homebuilders have topped out for the last year and have been wrong. I can't see how you can justify your strategy with recent examples of AOL, GE, ORCL, TYC, WCOM where all have fallen more than what most would have thought possible. I remember that it was thought foolish here that AOL could fall into the teens just a month ago. I also recall that some were buying using the same thought process you are. I'm not saying that i don't do the same thing. I just know that when I do not wait for the trend to change I usually regret it. Leave it those that have few fingers to catch that first 10-20% gain of the bottom is my opinion. >>PS: I don't really understand your comments related to PS, PE, and PB. With a trailing PE of 19 and a long term growth rate about twice that much, ORCL is trading at a reasonable valuation using traditional old economy valuation methods. You are just choosing to use 1 year trailing data and I am using 3 and 5 year data.<<< I'm not using one year data. I think it is not proper to use 3-5 year data on a stock and industry that has moved from the growth stage to the maturing stage on the s-curve. Using your logic would be like predicting returns for the next 3-5 years on the last 3-5 years. I'm sorry but I think we won't see times like the late 90's for a long while and valuation projections should based using much longer historical data. Joe