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To: BWAC who wrote (39417)	5/7/2002 11:04:46 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

>>>I buy when long term value is judged by me to be good and the risk reward over that time period skewed to my advantage.<<< LOL! Don't we all. BWAC, I think you are only stating the obvious. You may not call it a bottom but in the context of the debate we were speaking of "bottoms" for longer term trades. We are buying low and selling high. We don't buy low thinking will go lower. We buy because we have reached a point where we feel that we can make a profit. Back to my original point about ORCL I feel that it is not a value play here as some suggested. It certainly looks more fairly valued but the others ( the street) have a different opinion. ORCL is down another 5% today. If you have a stop loss in place you are almost out if you bought yesterday. Why not wait for a base if you (not you) think fundamentals justify a buy? Joe

To: BWAC who wrote (39417)	5/7/2002 4:36:09 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

You took the words right out of my mouth, BWAC. I am not trying to pick the bottom in ORCL and even stated so as clearly as I can. I think that the stock is attractively priced based on FA, but I know damn well that because the market goes to extremes in both directions, it may trade lower. If it does I'll take what the market gives me and buy more. We all have different perceptions of value, and that's why there are buyers and sellers. ORCL's chart does not say buy, but the extreme downtrend over the last few weeks is not sustainable in my opinion, and that's why I think buying ORCL on the way down will pan out in the short term. Cisco released their earnings after hours, and they look pretty good. The stock is up about 90 cents after hours leading me to believe that it had priced in a miss. The First Call estimate was a 9 cent per share profit and they earned 10 to 11 cents per share depending on whether you exclude option exercises and other non-recurring items. More importantly, revenues were up year to year and flat with last quarter and Mr. Chambers made some bullish forward looking comments. The change in year to year and sequential revenue indicates that Cisco's sales may be bottoming, much like Oracle's. Quoting from Cisco's press release: "We are very pleased with this quarter's performance, especially our year-to-year profit increase of 264% and quarter-to-quarter increase of 26%," said John Chambers, president and CEO of Cisco Systems. "The combination of our strong market position and solid execution by our team produced results that clearly indicate that Cisco is well positioned when the economy rebounds. Last year was a classic downturn. We took the critical steps to position ourselves for the upturn, and we are beginning to see the very positive results." Further commenting on Cisco's execution, Chambers added, "From an operational perspective, this quarter was a home run. Our strong results led to gross margins of 63.1%, cash flows of $1.6 billion and inventory turns of 7.5 times, which exceeded our goals. We continue to take market share from our top-ten competitors, with revenue growth of 2% year-over-year versus a drop of 43% for these competitors." biz.yahoo.com RE CIEN: I agree with your comments on Ciena as well. It looks like margin puke and fear of Cisco missing pressured it. That won't last.