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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (62839)	5/7/2002 11:33:04 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Respond to of 99280

funny, if find this thread exceedingly bullish, don't confuse softechies volume with # of bears...and i presume this thread's main audience are lurkers that blindly follow zeev into LONG ONLY daytrades which is why I see high activity here as bullish, maybe I'm wrong? BTW, you want to see psychological damage, wait until the next failed rally LOL

To: Rock_nj who wrote (62839)	5/7/2002 11:39:48 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

Obviously, the bears are in control of the market now. Bearish psychology has taken over the market. It's going to take some really good news to turn things around, because this kind of selloff does serious psychological damage Bullish psychology took over in the 1990s and investors were bullish for years. May be this bearishness is not contrarian at all. My reason is that the safe haven investment status of the US is slowly being diminished. We will have fund outflows from treasuries mostly (and may be out of nasdaq). So many Asian banks have huge reserves in US dollars to fight off any potential currency crisis. Guess what, we could have a currency crisis but not the type they were preparing for. Their strategy was always to have US$ reserves to defend their own currencies. Now they are sitting on these huge dollar positions and unable to weaken their own currencies without adding more dollars to reserves. That is a recipe for disaster. A run on the dollar is inevitable. The dollar is a bubble right now, just like the Nasdaq was (or is). That would be bad for US treasuries. That could be the catalyst for the US stock market to go higher as investors finally bail out of that other bubble, US treasuries. A flight to quality trade of a different sort. Under that scenario, Gold should also go up. (my assumption is that we don't have double dip recession)