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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry D who wrote (2891)	5/7/2002 1:30:07 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 7827

Henry, today's productivity increase news is very positive Message 17434345 Wages up, too. G.

To: Henry D who wrote (2891)	5/7/2002 10:32:40 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7827

HI Henry, We are off the bottom.The recovery will be slow - there is much excess capacity of OLD TECH. The dynamic winners who stay on the leading edge have been and are reinvesting - so it is a cycle trough we're coming out of. This is why congress allowed depreciation of semi equipment to occur over 3 years - the cycles are that fast .It is a requirement for domestic leaders to stay leaders. In reality - the slower it is the better it will be.Nice slow long consolidations - relatively stable. Here's where I have a hard time.Cohu is swimming upstream acting relatively strong. Don Wennerstrom's thread shows Cohu to have wonderful strength. I've owned Cohu for almost 20 years off and on.It has an uncanny way of being resistant - but if Mr Market deals us a capitulation - Cohu will give owners a final shakeout. My mentor (Ted Warren) always used to say "expect a final shakeout". Well Cohu is hanging tough. It projects a breakeven or better next Q. It's backlogs are growing. But we have the dog days of summer to go thru - you know all of June and the first ten days of July. IF we get a plateau/dip - we could see 19-23.So do you hold ?or do you sell to create purchasing power capabilities?? Don't get me wrong - I'm as married to Cohu as any investor is - and I view that as a fault - so contrarian viewpoints are healthy - especially if the payoff is more buying power to buy more shares at a lower price(that's how I rationalize it). Let's face it - everybody runs out of purchasing power sooner or later.I got aggressive prior to earnings and margined 15,000 - shares 5000 @ 20 ish and another 11,000 at the cup and handle breakout(23/65).It had a nice pop to 30-it failed and has tailed back.I really am uncomfortable about how it broke it 50 day ma. If it breaks out tomorrow - I'll be chump and got faked out of my jockstrap.I'll also be 30,000 to the plus so I'll be a wealthier chump.ggg On the other hand - if the plateau/dip comes about I'll buy back 20,000 shares if it hits 19-20 with the same level of margin.drool drool. In between I've got just a killer core position of Cohu -most of which was bot 13-25.ggg So I'm getting cute playing the ougi board- hoping to take 15,000 off the table at 27 ish and hoping for to get 20,000 at 19-20. Heck I don't know - I just try to remember the emotions of the past,study the price action and hope to end up with the nicer things of life at the end of the journey.It is however the journey that gets me up at 3:00 in the morning.gg If I miss the breakout - there's JDSU at 3.85 and Orcl at8.00 or Slr at 7.25. Throw my arms up in the air and say I missed the boat. That's ok too.ggg One thing for sure - If Cohu has a 1.8 million volume plus 4.00 point day - I'll be buying @ the market - just as soon as I come out of the ether<VBG>. In between then and now I'm counting days and hoping Csco doesn't blow me out of the water too bad tomorrow. Some where around 33-36 days from 30.65 - I'm hoping for a vix spike and a put/call ratio over 1.1 on a 3 billion plus day on the NAZ. Hey everybody has to have a dream.gg Bob P.S This NAZ decline may well have stressed me out and I could be WAY WRONG. It is definately oversold but - it would be the first gentle capitulation I've seen.Life is full of learning events.