To: tejek who wrote (146972 ) 5/7/2002 2:05:04 PM From: tejek Respond to of 1575596 Tech, Telecom Won't Rebound This Year By James J. Cramer 05/06/2002 11:04 AM EDT The growth thesis, the one that says the economy will rebound strongly, took it on the chin last week. First we heard company after company brag about how it can cut tech spending much more in order to grow earnings. Then we received an employment number that revealed employment gains to be far less than some of us would hope. I come from the money management business, where we like to make big bets on the speed of a recovery. Those of us who were speculating that this recovery is well on track and strong were dealt a huge setback last week. To not acknowledge that is to be blind, a Pollyanna. That costs me too much money. The stock market speaks loudly about these matters. When things are getting weak, you see the consumer stocks, the Coca-Colas (KO:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), the Procter & Gambles (PG:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and the Pepsis (PEP:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) gaining steam. That's what's happening now. These stocks are screaming that the first-quarter growth was a fluke, and that we should get ready for a protracted period of less-than-spectacular growth. I wish it weren't so, but wishing doesn't make a dime in this market. It's time to recognize that there will be no rebound in tech and telecom in 2002. It's time to recognize that the nascent run in semiconductors and hardware has been nipped in the bud. For the tech bulls, it's a simple lesson that many of us following the NBA playoffs know all too well: Wait till next year. Random musings: It's true that Xbox is a disappointment, but not for the reasons people think. My kids love Xbox, but Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) doesn't have even a handful of G-rated games, ones that don't rile parents. We don't want games that appeal to crazed teens; we want games that are not violent. And unlike programming on television, we can control what enters our home because these games are expensive. ... Action Alerts PLUS subscribers, check your email! My next new addition to the portfolio is out. My last few new names have jumped to immediate premiums or hung in there like champs. This one should be no different. And if you're not an Action Alerts PLUS subscriber already, what are you waiting for? Don't miss another bulletin. Click here and sign up now. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com.