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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (13908)	5/7/2002 3:22:38 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 81455

He's screwed up enough don't you think? I think so, the boom in tech he did not understand he did not tighten soon enough or let the market find it's own rates. He would of been better off with tight control of dollars and the market would of steered its own course. He might have a vague idea that property values could cause excessive wage inflation but he is looking at this as localized. The problem in that is that the areas it is localized in will have to have wage inflation or a reduction in housing costs. The areas that have increased so vastly are service centers for the rest of the nation. Due to consolidation in business the impact of tech bubble is still running its course so unemployment figures haven't peaked. There is a very high potential that the property bubble could pop and create far more damage than the tech bubble as benefactors of this market have been looking this as having the same potential future the dot coms use to have. Accounting wise excluding tax advantage of buying the loans that are being drawn up today are very creative. You have monkeys that are swinging from vine to vine due to rulings that can be used to eliminate capital gains if you keep moving equity out and onward. You have however wages that have extended from not only low income flat but into other sectors of the economy who remain flat as well as the new graduates who are now looking at reduced wage scale when you compare this to last year. I don't feel he is viewing this in conjunction with the tax laws and the possibility of implosion they have inadvertently created. This in my opinion puts housing and all tied to it as a greater financial risk than the dot coms. You have property clipping along at 25% gain per year and the lower income looking at raises in the form of mandated wage increases or non taxed income any way they can find it. You also have government trying to aid housing costs for those who can't afford houses. I don't know for sure but it appears technology reduced costs, there of to keep an economy sailing wages should of followed suit. However we have been hell bent on extended growth and no contraction. I don't believe an economy that is gorged in funds can find a sustainable level. It appears to me money moved to another area that it created inflation in. This area to me has more volatility than the last as increased housing demand is usually the result of increased growth in what one would normally consider an increased job market. Your 2006 appears to me to fall in line with contraction that will be the conclusion of this cycle. I hope it is mild but it doesn't appear like it will be.