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To: tejek who wrote (79752)	5/8/2002 6:16:41 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

RE:"The Naz bubble burst and we've had [at least so far] a relatively mild recession" You said it, "so far"...maybe the other shoe will never drop. RE:"Well to we go full cycle or get away with just current damage? Real Estate is bubbling just like the NASDAQ...humm. It is? How's that? Commercial vacancy rates, except in specific hi tech markets, are not nearly as high as the last recession, let alone in a depression. Apartment vacancy rates are low except for a few overbuilt markets. Housing prices are at their highest level in history but then again the home buying population is at a high, particularly in the the purchase of high end homes...... You hit on more than one thing. Yes, commercial vacancy rates. What does that tell you? RE:"Housing prices are at their highest level in history but then again the home buying population is at a high, particularly in the the purchase of high end homes. that's because boomers are buying their ultimate big houses. And its the numerous purchases of expensive homes that is pushing the median price up, not simply inflationary pressures. The inflation is in the home prices, just light it was in the NASDAQ. Fueled by the money flow from stock markets and the largest tax cut in history it's becaome a flipping game. A perfect example of the "greater fool" theory. AG can't help but perpetuate it with low rates. He is literally held hostage by the rest of the economy which is basically in the dumper. I've never seen anything like it. Due to the rate and steepness of acceleration, it does seem that a crash is the most likely result. We shall see... Jim