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To: _warlock_ who wrote (545)	5/8/2002 2:26:44 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT <<Do you think we'll test the September lows again, this year or next?>> My opinion is, the Bubble partially deflated, and now seems to be re-inflating. This re-Bubbling will go on, until: 1. the housing sector collapses 2. the dollar collapses 3. inflation makes the Fed raise rates many times 4. we get what Buffett is predicting, a nuclear attack on NY or Washington. If none of those things happen, then we probably won't take out the 9/01 lows. And I don't think #1-3 happen this year. Maybe in 2003 or 2004, I'll worry about it then. Bubbles can take years and years to fully resolve, it's a long process to reach total exhaustion. #4 is a wildcard, wholly unpredictable, so no point in worrying about it. I've been selling the rallies, and buying the big dips, since early 2000, but I'm more willing to hold long positions longer, than at anytime in the last 2 years. I thought this current dip would trough in the Nas 1600s area, so I've already been proven a bit too Exuberant. But I still don't think we take out the 9/01 lows, and I think we go on, sometime in 2002, and take out the January 2002 highs. I'll still sell the rallies (sold some of my CSCO today, at 15.5, at a profit), but not as aggressively as I sold the 2001 rallies (I was 30-40% cash at the top of all the 2001 rallies, and using margin at all the intermediate-term bottoms). It's still a trader's market, but I think the huge waterfall-plunge-down moves that we saw all through 2001, are over. Now, mostly, stocks go into trading ranges, wide horizontal bands, with valuations creating a ceiling, and liquidity creating a floor. The fundamentals get better, very slowly , for most tech stocks (with a lot of exceptions, especially in the telecom/equip/component area).